29 October 2015

5 things you need to know before becoming a full time trader

Do you really want to be a full-time trader? What you need to know if you want to replace your day-job

There are a few little known and rarely discussed points which pose great challenges on full-time traders. It is important for you not to romanticize full-time trading and to have a realistic view. Furthermore, by being aware of what it takes to be a full-time trader you can effectively prepare yourself for the journey.

5 questions you need to ask yourself before quitting your job to trade full-time


1 – Are you a risk taker?

First things first; are you really made to be a full-time trader? Dealing with drawdowns and not generating income for weeks is common and regardless of how good you are as a trader, you will experience such periods.
Trading can be compared to entrepreneurship where you can’t predict your next month’s sales and how much money will end up in your pocket. Not everyone can deal with such uncertainty and as a trader you have to be self-aware and audit yourself. Don’t worry, if you are not a pure risk-taker, read on – we provide more tips on how to still make trading work for you.

2 – Is your trading account large enough?

Only if your trading account is large enough, you will be able to make the transition to full-time trading. Here it is also important to know your historical performance; how much return can you generate per year with your trading? After knowing the numbers, you canreverse-engineer how big your trading account needs to be in order to achieve a certain annual income.
As we have said in the previous point, trading is dealing with the unknown and although you can have a proven track-record and a large trading account, you will experience months where you just can’t create any income.  Having separate accounts for your trading, savings and spending is highly recommended.

income
Edgewonk.com – Reverse-engineering trading income


3 – Do you need to withdraw every month?


withdrawals
click to enlarge

How do you structure your trading account, your personal spending and your savings? How often you withdraw from your trading account limits the growth of your trading account. If you are making $4,000 per months with your trading, but need to withdraw $3,500 monthly, there is not a lot of wiggle-room for future growth.
Compound interest is as close to the Holy Grail in trading as it gets, but making withdrawals minimizes the effects of compounding significantly.  Leaving your trading account untouched for as long as possible and letting your capital work for you is the key to exceptional growth.

4 – What is your motivation?

Why do you trade and what are your goals? Do you think that trading is an easier way to generate a six figure income, while you can sit at home and work 4 hours a day? Professional trading is often connected to 12 hours work days and working on the weekends is a big part of trading as well. At the same time, you are alone most the time, tied to your screen with very little human interactions. The people who are in it for the wrong reasons often receive a painful wakeup call and do not have the stamina to push through when the going gets tough.
Research found that people who are just in it for the money are more likely to lose more money in trading. To make sure you don’t fall into this category, be clear about what it means to trade full-time.

5 – How long have you been trading?

If this all doesn’t bother you and you are determined to make it, great! But there is one more thing we need to address. The amount of experience you have as a trader plays a critical role. Financial markets move in cycles and most new traders have never experienced a full market cycle; if you have only been exposed to a bullish market period, a market sell-off and prolonged bearish market moves can easily ruin your game and prove that your system does not work under all conditions.
The graphs below show the EUR/USD and the S&P500. Both graphs show that individual bullish and bearish market cycles can last for months and even years. It is important to understand the environment you are trading in to make educated decisions. If you haven’t experienced a full bearish cycle yet, prepping yourself for changing market conditions and having a plan B is of upmost importance.

market_cycle2
EUR/USD – Last bearish phase lasted for over 1 year

market_cycle
S&P500 – Bullish market environment for over 5 years


A better approach to full-time trading. How to make this work for you

Don’t worry, even if the previous 5 questions signal that you are not ready to make the step towards full-time trading yet, you can still make this work for you. There is nothing wrong with treating trading as a side-business.

1 – Add to your trading account


adding
click to enlarge

Instead of withdrawing to put food on your table, add to your account with the income from your regular day job and grow your account much faster. As mentioned above, withdrawing money is a big performance killer and significantly reduces the way compounding interests work. Adding to your trading account can make a big difference and increases the speed how fast your capital can growth.

2 – Cut down living expenses

Being able to live from your trading is a two-way street, although most people don’t understand it. Being financially independent can be achieved two ways: First, you make more money than what you spend. And second, you spend less, cut your living expenses and bring down the amount of money you need to make.
If you are really determined to make it as a full-time trader but you are still far away from making $5,000 per month (if that is what you need), take a look at your spending behavior. Where can you cut back? You don’t have to start living like a monk and you can always increase your spending later, but if you want to really quit your job sooner and start living off your trading, you should audit your spending behavior.

3 – Trading as a second income stream

Seeing trading as a complimentary income stream is often the best choice. If you love your job, you love the personal contact with other humans and can’t see yourself tied to a screen 12 hours a day, pursuing the full-time trading lifestyle is going to end in a catastrophe.
Trading can be a great second stream of income and mix things up. There is nothing wrong with “trading on the side” and often, people who keep a balanced life can see improvements in their trading as well. If you don’t have the pressure of having to make money with your trading to pay the rent, you can trade much more freely.

What’s next?

Where do you start now? Tradeciety is the partner site of Edgewonk.com where we offer the probably most sophisticated trading journal solution currently on the market. In addition to that, we developed a 12-week program that takes you by the hand and helps you explore what it takes to become a more professional trader. You will learn how to set yourself up for trading success, how to create a professional daily and weekly routine and how to use the Edgewonk trading journal to tweak your trading system.
Image Credit:
Charts have been obtained using tradingview.com


Taken from: http://www.tradeciety.com/fulltime-trading-what-do-you-need/

The Most Important 25hour Period in Dec 2015

The Federal Reserve just put the possibility of an interest rate hike in December firmly back on the table. In doing so, the U.S. central bank has also helped set the stage for what will be the most important 25-hour period that markets have experienced for a very long time. 

From 7.45 a.m. on Dec. 3 to 8.30 a.m. on Dec. 4, markets will embark on a rollicking cross-Atlantic tour of central bank speak and economic data. It starts in Europe, where the ECB will make an interest rate decision that could see further stimulus for the region, followed by its conference at 8.30 a.m. Then at 10 a.m., Fed Chair Janet Yellen will appear before Congress. Markets will then get the chance for a brief sleep before 8.30 a.m. on Dec. 4, when the last U.S. jobs report before the Fed is scheduled to make its own interest rate decision on Dec. 16 is published. That decision could see the U.S. central bank tighten just as the ECB eases (the kind of divergence in international monetary policy that hasn’t happened since late 2008, a time of mass uncertainty). The outcome of these 25 hours will no doubt have big implications for markets. 

Mark your calendars now.

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US FOMC: On Hold In October, Hints December Possibility (29 Oct 2015) - SG-UOB Global Economics & Markets Research


US FOMC: On Hold In October, Hints December Possibility
 
§  The Fed again kept its ultra-low rates policy unchanged in October but surprised markets with specific reference to "whether it will be appropriate to raise the target range at its next meeting", putting the December FOMC firmly as a live possibility for the first Fed rate hike in nearly a decade.
 
§  The Fed upgraded its outlook on US household spending and business fixed investment but was less upbeat about the US labor market. The other surprise in the October FOMC was the removal of the direct reference to global developments restraining US growth and depressing inflation. Fed's US inflation outlook remained mostly unchanged in October.
 
§  The October FOMC further cements our expectation for the first Fed rate hike to take place in the 15-16 December 2015 FOMC and we still forecast the FFTR to reach 0.5% by end 2015, and 1.5% by end 2016. The concerns about the US government debt ceiling and another US government shutdown have abated, and the immediate focus now is the prelim US 3Q-2015 GDP (29 Oct) and the October US Labor Report (6 Nov).
 
 
Global Economics & Markets Research
 

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Email • GlobalEcoMktResearch@uobgroup.com
URL • www.uob.com.sg/research
 
 

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This transmission has been issued by a member of the UOB Kay Hian Group for the information of the addressee only and should not be reproduced and/or distributed to any other person. Each page attached hereto must be read in conjunction with any disclaimer which forms part of it. Unless otherwise stated, this transmission is neither an offer nor the solicitation of an offer to sell or purchase any investment. Its comments are based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable but UOB Kay Hian Group makes no representations and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its completeness or accuracy.

28 October 2015

SP: Wilmar International - 3Q15 Results Preview (BUY/Target Price: S$3.60) by Singapore Research Team

irregular weather patterns have resulted in the surge of commodities prices.


Singapore: Wilmar International (WIL SP)                BUY

Price/Tgt: S$3.15/3.60        Mkt Cap: US$14.3b        Avg Val: US$19.1m     Hi/Lo: S$3.42/2.52

3Q15 Results Preview


3Q15 results preview: We are Expecting net profit of US$300m–350m (+79%qoq, -19% yoy) after adjusting our 2015 net profit forecasts down by 13% to US$1.12b. The earnings adjustments are to reflect lower palm & lauric sales volume and lower sugar margins. 3Q is usually the best earnings quarter as sugar's contribution bulk of its profit in this quarter as sugar milling season starts. Its China operations are expected to continue to do well in 3Q15. Maintain BUY. Target price: S$3.60.

WHAT'S NEW
·        Earnings revision. We cut our earnings forecast by 13%, 6% and 7% for 2015, 2016 and 2017 respectively. The earnings cut is greater for 2015 to adjust for:

·        Lower our sales volume  forecast for palm downstream in 2015 to take into consideration lower biodiesel sales in Indonesia and exports, and

·        Increased sugar merchandising & processing volume but lower margin.

·        3Q15 results preview: Expecting core net profit of US$300m-350m (vs 3Q14: US$429.7m, 2Q15: US$193.6m) post earnings adjustment. Wilmar is scheduled to release its 3Q15 results on 11 Nov 15 after the market closes.  We are expecting a strong qoq earning growth on the positive contribution from the sugar division vs losses in the previous quarter and higher contribution from the oilseeds & grains division on higher crushing margin & volume, and higher contribution from consumer pack as 3Q15 sales is usually higher due to festive demand.  In 3Q15, the reported net profit is likely to be lower due to investment mark-to-market losses as the overall equity market was lower vs 2Q15.  

SUMAMRY OF OUR EXPECTATION FOR 3Q15

 
3Q14
2Q15
3Q15 Expectation
PBT margin (%)
Tropical Oils
n.a.
4.5
Lower yoy & qoq due to lower CPO price and refining margins.
 
PBT margin (US$/tonne)
Oilseeds and Grains
24.2
16.8
Crushing margin: up qoq, flattish yoy.
Consumer pack margins: up yoy and qoq
Sugar
45.2
(16.3)
Yoy lower on lower sugar prices. Qoq back in profit as sugar milling season starts
 
Sales Volume ('000 tonnes)
Tropical Oils
- Manufacturing
6,500
5,614
Oilseeds and Grains
7,276
6,913
- Manufacturing
5,772
5,911
Higher crushing volume as China imports more soybean.
- Consumer Products
1,504
1,002
Better qoq.
Adjustment to products classification will lead to lower volume yoy.

Source: Wilmar, UOB Kay Hian



EARNINGS REVISION/RISK
·        Earnings downward revision. We cut our earnings forecast by 13%, 6% and 7% for 2015, 2016 and 2017 respectively. The earnings cut is greater for 2015 to adjust for: a) we lower our sales volume  forecast for palm downstream in 2015 to take into consideration lower biodiesel sales in Indonesia and exports, and b) increased sugar merchandising & processing volume but lower margin.

·        We are now expecting an EPS of 17.4 US cents, 20.7 US cents and 22.0 US cents for 2015, 2016 and 2017 respectively.

VALUATION/RECOMMENDATION        
Maintain BUY. We maintain our SOTP-based target price of S$3.60. We have rolled over our SOTP valuation to 2016 and the key assumptions for the SOTP include 15x PE for its palm upstream, consumer pack and sugar divisions and 13x for its palm refining and soybean crushing and 10x for the rest of operations. The SOTP-based target price translates into a blended PE of 12.4x 2016F PE (5-year mean).





Regards,
Leow Huey Chuen
GL: 603-2147 1988/DL: 603- 2147 1990
Email: hueychuen@uobkayhian.com
____________________________________________________
This transmission has been issued by a member of the UOB Kay Hian Group for the information of the addressee only and should not be reproduced and/or distributed to any other person. Each page attached hereto must be read in conjunction with any disclaimer which forms part of it. Unless otherwise stated, this transmission is neither an offer nor the solicitation of an offer to sell or purchase any investment. Its contents are based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable but UOB Kay Hian Group makes no representation and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its completeness or accuracy.


This transmission has been issued by a member of the UOB Kay Hian Group for the information of the addressee only and should not be reproduced and/or distributed to any other person. Each page attached hereto must be read in conjunction with any disclaimer which forms part of it. Unless otherwise stated, this transmission is neither an offer nor the solicitation of an offer to sell or purchase any investment. Its comments are based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable but UOB Kay Hian Group makes no representations and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its completeness or accuracy.

SP: Wilmar International - 3Q15 Results Preview (BUY/Target Price: S$3.60) by Singapore Research Team



Singapore: Wilmar International (WIL SP)                BUY

Price/Tgt: S$3.15/3.60        Mkt Cap: US$14.3b        Avg Val: US$19.1m     Hi/Lo: S$3.42/2.52

3Q15 Results Preview


3Q15 results preview: We are Expecting net profit of US$300m–350m (+79%qoq, -19% yoy) after adjusting our 2015 net profit forecasts down by 13% to US$1.12b. The earnings adjustments are to reflect lower palm & lauric sales volume and lower sugar margins. 3Q is usually the best earnings quarter as sugar's contribution bulk of its profit in this quarter as sugar milling season starts. Its China operations are expected to continue to do well in 3Q15. Maintain BUY. Target price: S$3.60.

WHAT'S NEW
·        Earnings revision. We cut our earnings forecast by 13%, 6% and 7% for 2015, 2016 and 2017 respectively. The earnings cut is greater for 2015 to adjust for:

·        Lower our sales volume  forecast for palm downstream in 2015 to take into consideration lower biodiesel sales in Indonesia and exports, and

·        Increased sugar merchandising & processing volume but lower margin.

·        3Q15 results preview: Expecting core net profit of US$300m-350m (vs 3Q14: US$429.7m, 2Q15: US$193.6m) post earnings adjustment. Wilmar is scheduled to release its 3Q15 results on 11 Nov 15 after the market closes.  We are expecting a strong qoq earning growth on the positive contribution from the sugar division vs losses in the previous quarter and higher contribution from the oilseeds & grains division on higher crushing margin & volume, and higher contribution from consumer pack as 3Q15 sales is usually higher due to festive demand.  In 3Q15, the reported net profit is likely to be lower due to investment mark-to-market losses as the overall equity market was lower vs 2Q15.  

SUMAMRY OF OUR EXPECTATION FOR 3Q15

 
3Q14
2Q15
3Q15 Expectation
PBT margin (%)
Tropical Oils
n.a.
4.5
Lower yoy & qoq due to lower CPO price and refining margins.
 
PBT margin (US$/tonne)
Oilseeds and Grains
24.2
16.8
Crushing margin: up qoq, flattish yoy.
Consumer pack margins: up yoy and qoq
Sugar
45.2
(16.3)
Yoy lower on lower sugar prices. Qoq back in profit as sugar milling season starts
 
Sales Volume ('000 tonnes)
Tropical Oils
- Manufacturing
6,500
5,614
Oilseeds and Grains
7,276
6,913
- Manufacturing
5,772
5,911
Higher crushing volume as China imports more soybean.
- Consumer Products
1,504
1,002
Better qoq.
Adjustment to products classification will lead to lower volume yoy.

Source: Wilmar, UOB Kay Hian



EARNINGS REVISION/RISK
·        Earnings downward revision. We cut our earnings forecast by 13%, 6% and 7% for 2015, 2016 and 2017 respectively. The earnings cut is greater for 2015 to adjust for: a) we lower our sales volume  forecast for palm downstream in 2015 to take into consideration lower biodiesel sales in Indonesia and exports, and b) increased sugar merchandising & processing volume but lower margin.

·        We are now expecting an EPS of 17.4 US cents, 20.7 US cents and 22.0 US cents for 2015, 2016 and 2017 respectively.

VALUATION/RECOMMENDATION        
Maintain BUY. We maintain our SOTP-based target price of S$3.60. We have rolled over our SOTP valuation to 2016 and the key assumptions for the SOTP include 15x PE for its palm upstream, consumer pack and sugar divisions and 13x for its palm refining and soybean crushing and 10x for the rest of operations. The SOTP-based target price translates into a blended PE of 12.4x 2016F PE (5-year mean).





Regards,
Leow Huey Chuen
GL: 603-2147 1988/DL: 603- 2147 1990
Email: hueychuen@uobkayhian.com
____________________________________________________
This transmission has been issued by a member of the UOB Kay Hian Group for the information of the addressee only and should not be reproduced and/or distributed to any other person. Each page attached hereto must be read in conjunction with any disclaimer which forms part of it. Unless otherwise stated, this transmission is neither an offer nor the solicitation of an offer to sell or purchase any investment. Its contents are based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable but UOB Kay Hian Group makes no representation and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its completeness or accuracy.


This transmission has been issued by a member of the UOB Kay Hian Group for the information of the addressee only and should not be reproduced and/or distributed to any other person. Each page attached hereto must be read in conjunction with any disclaimer which forms part of it. Unless otherwise stated, this transmission is neither an offer nor the solicitation of an offer to sell or purchase any investment. Its comments are based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable but UOB Kay Hian Group makes no representations and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its completeness or accuracy.

27 October 2015

SP: FX Trading Idea





Click on the link for details.


https://research.uobkayhian.com/content_download.jsp?id=30930&h=9bb9377f105d4c666ac02b8d1b5d9d59



This transmission has been issued by a member of the UOB Kay Hian Group for the information of the addressee only and should not be reproduced and/or distributed to any other person. Each page attached hereto must be read in conjunction with any disclaimer which forms part of it. Unless otherwise stated, this transmission is neither an offer nor the solicitation of an offer to sell or purchase any investment. Its comments are based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable but UOB Kay Hian Group makes no representations and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its completeness or accuracy.

26 October 2015

China Property: Interest Rate Cut To Boost Weak Property Investment



CHINA PROPERTY    MARKET WEIGHT
 
Interest Rate Cut To Boost Weak Property Investment

Analyst: Edison Bian/David Yang     Tel: (852) 2236 6761/(8621) 54047225 ext 801

What's new

The PBOC announced 25bp symmetric cuts to the benchmark lending and deposit rates along with A 50bp RRR cut.

 SIX ROUNDS OF INTEREST RATE CUT SINCE NOV-14

Date
5-Yr Lending Rate
Mortgage Payment Per Month*
Mortgage Saving
24-Oct-15
4.90%
6,544
138
26-Aug-15
5.15%
6,683
140
28-Jun-15
5.40%
6,823
141
11-May-15
5.65%
6,964
143
01-Mar-15
5.90%
7,107
144
22-Nov-14
6.15%
7,251

Source: WIND, UOB KayHian
*Assume Mortgage amount Rmb1m, payment period 20 years

MORTGAGE RATE VS PROPERTY SALES  

Source: PBoC, CRIC, UOB KayHian


Our view

-  This is the six round of interest rate cut since Nov-14 and five years' benchmark lending rate have been reduced to 4.9% which is the lowest level in history. The monthly mortgage savings generated from the latest rate cut reached around Rmb140 for a Rmb1m housing loan with a 20-year term, and hence the rate cuts had limited impact on boosting housing demand growth.

- Thanks to current loosening credit environment, banks are supportive on mortgage lending as it is a safer business in the light of stronger consumer demand for housing loans, the loan quotas are sufficient in 4Q15 from our channel check.  

- Developers are expected to benefit from lower bank borrowings and hopefully cheaper financing which can translate to better project development progress and stronger growth in GFA new starts. The ultimate goal is to drive property investment growth (grew at a weaker rate of 2.6% in 9M15) which contributes heavily to GDP growth.

- Property stocks are expected to react positively to the latest rate/RRR cuts, led by highly geared names, such as Evergrande (3333 HK, BUY) and also the healthy sales recovery progress seen across the key cities which has shored up market sentiment. We encourage profit-taking on property stocks which have recovered from the bottom, such as Shimao (813 HK, HOLD) and Sunac China (1918 HK, HOLD), but also sticking with the more defensive large players. The space for further credit easing exercises is becoming limited and this has led to limited upsides for valuation recovery.

 

Regards,


David Yang      杨 磊
Research Analyst

UOB Kay Hian
Tel:008621-54047225-801
Mobile:86-(0)-135 644 6767
E-mail:davidyang@uobkayhian.com







This transmission has been issued by a member of the UOB Kay Hian Group for the information of the addressee only and should not be reproduced and/or distributed to any other person. Each page attached hereto must be read in conjunction with any disclaimer which forms part of it. Unless otherwise stated, this transmission is neither an offer nor the solicitation of an offer to sell or purchase any investment. Its comments are based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable but UOB Kay Hian Group makes no representations and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its completeness or accuracy.

23 October 2015

SG: Tigerair reports 2QFY16 net loss of S$12.7m vs our expectation of S$6.0m loss

For clients who are into TigerAir







Highlights
  • Earnings were below expectations. While we expected Tigerair to report losses, the actual quantum was double that of our estimates.  
  • Operating costs were higher than expected due to a 50% rise in maintenance costs in 2Q.
  • Tigerair was also impacted by a weaker SGD against the USD, which resulted in a S$6.9m offset.
  • The key positive was that ASP growth at 7.6% was stronger than expected.
  • We will provide further info, following an analysts briefing.



Best Regards

K Ajith

Director- Asia Transport Research

65-65906627


This transmission has been issued by a member of the UOB Kay Hian Group for the information of the addressee only and should not be reproduced and/or distributed to any other person. Each page attached hereto must be read in conjunction with any disclaimer which forms part of it. Unless otherwise stated, this transmission is neither an offer nor the solicitation of an offer to sell or purchase any investment. Its comments are based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable but UOB Kay Hian Group makes no representations and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its completeness or accuracy.

21 October 2015

SP: Money Talk: KEPPEL INFRASTRUCTURE TRUST (KIT SP): Quarterly Distributable Cashflow Falls 7% On City Gas





Click on the link for details.


https://research.uobkayhian.com/content_download.jsp?id=30846&h=c671b2d9f9883fcc2a520cc43c0d4f11




This transmission has been issued by a member of the UOB Kay Hian Group for the information of the addressee only and should not be reproduced and/or distributed to any other person. Each page attached hereto must be read in conjunction with any disclaimer which forms part of it. Unless otherwise stated, this transmission is neither an offer nor the solicitation of an offer to sell or purchase any investment. Its comments are based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable but UOB Kay Hian Group makes no representations and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its completeness or accuracy.

20 October 2015

China Railway Sector: China signed Indonesia Jakarta-Bandung railway contract with local companies




China Railway Sector  
China signed Jakarta-Bandung railway project contract with Indonesian local construction contractors

Analyst: Johnson Hu/Cynthia Wang      Tel: (8621) 54047225-809

What's new
According to news report, China Railway Co (CRC) formally signed contract with Indonesian companies to form a JV for Jakarta-Bandung railway project. This confirms that China won this Indonesia railway project.  

Our vievs
- Jakarta-Bandung railway project has a length of 150km with estimated total investment of about US$6b. According to previous news reports, China will provide US$5.5b loan with a low interest rate of 2%. The lending period will be 40-50 years. China also promised that the railway will be completed in 2018. The project is expected to launch in Nov and will be completed in 2018. According to Indonesia's Bandung Institute of Technology estimate, the average daily passenger volume will reach 44,000 at the initial stage. If the average ticket price sets at 200,000 rupiah (about Rmb100), the annual ticket revenue will reach 3.2t rupiah (about US$250m).  

- Two key reasons for China to beat Japan: a) Japan side only provides a portion of financing and Indonesia government needs take some financial burden as well as guarantee on debt repayment while China can offer fully financing support for this project without loan repayment guarantee, b)China will complete the railway construction in three years but Japanese contractors feel difficult to fulfill the task. China and Indonesia will form a JV with Indonesia side taking 60% of interest in this project while China holding 40% stake. In addition, China also promises to share high-speed rail technology with Indonesia, use local labor and about two-thirds of the raw materials used in the project to be bought from local market.

- Currently, it is difficult to estimate the profitability for CRC due to the lack of detailed disclosure on investment plan, financing and currency settlement. The key potential participants of the project from China are CRG (390 HK, HOLD) and CRRC (1766 HK, HOLD) as well its subsidiary Zhuzhou CSR (3898 HK, BUY).

- China's recent winning of US XpressWest, a milestone high-speed rail project in advanced countries, and Jakarta-Bandung railway should help China break through both emerging and developed countries' markets.  We expect China railway companies to gain more market share in overseas projects on the back of the competitive edges in cost control, strong execution in project construction and proven track record in high-speed rail technology and operation. UK No 2. HSR project and India New Delhi to Mumbai HSR project will be the next projects for China to compete in overseas market. We expect OBOR and rapid growing urban rail transit (URT) to offset a slowdown of railway investment growth in domestic market.


Regards,

Johnson Hu, CFA
Equity Research
UOB Kay Hian
Tel:(8621) 54047225-809
Email:johnsonhu@uobkayhian.com

This transmission has been issued by a member of the UOB Kay Hian Group for the information of the addressee only and should not be reproduced and/or distributed to any other person. Each page attached hereto must be read in conjunction with any disclaimer which forms part of it. Unless otherwise stated, this transmission is neither an offer nor the solicitation of an offer to sell or purchase any investment. Its comments are based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable but UOB Kay Hian Group makes no representations and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its completeness or accuracy.

SP: Keppel Infrastructure Trust [KIT SP] 2QFY16 Results Flash Note

Morning,

Personally i think that while this is a good stock for dividend yield, the capital gain might not be as quick as expected.

fyi


Company
Share Price
Rec
Our Target Price
Within Expectation (Y/N)
Profit YoY
Profit QoQ
Highlights of Results
Keppel Infrastructure Trust (KIT)
0.515
HOLD
0.560
N
n.m.
n.m.
See comments below



KIT reported 2QFY16 distributable cashflow of S$32.9m, below our quarterly estimate of S$35.3m by 7%.
  1. 2QFY16 distributable cashflow was lower than expected primarily to a shortfall in City Gas's contribution (see point 2). The quarter also represented the first quarterly result with full 3 months contribution from Crystal Trust's assets (ex-KIT).
  2. City Gas contributed lower than expected distributable cashflow of S$7.3m in 2QFY16 vs S$11.2m in 2QFY15. The shortfall was due to a time lag in adjustment of gas tariffs with actual fuel costs. The business unit also saw higher interest expense from hedging of its underlying loan. As this is a timing issue, the shortfall is expected to be reversed later in the year.
  3. Concessions contribution to distributable cashflow was S$17m, in-line with expectations.
  4. KMC contributed distributable cashflow of S$12m for the quarter, S$1m higher than expectation of S$11m per quarter owing to a one-off gain from hedging. It is expected to normalise to S$11m going forward.
  5. Basslink did not contribute to distributable cashflow for 2QFY16 as per management guidance, as its cashflows are being diverted to reduce Basslink's debt. We note that revenue for the unit was lower due to higher CRSM, which hit the maximum 20% penalty for the period.
  6. KIT declared distributable payout per unit (DPU) of 0.93 S cents for 2QFY16. This is in-line with guided annualised DPU of 3.73 S cents, after accounting for rounding errors.The current DPU is payable on 20 Nov 15; book closure is 27 Oct 15.

Zhiwei Foo
UOB Kay Hian (Singapore) Pte Ltd

8 Anthony Road, Singapore 229957
Tel: +65 6535 6868
Dir: +65 6590 6626
E-mail: zhiwei@uobkayhian.com

This transmission has been issued by a member of the UOB Kay Hian Group for the information of the addressee only and should not be reproduced and/or distributed to any other person. Each page attached hereto must be read in conjunction with any disclaimer which forms part of it. Unless otherwise stated, this transmission is neither an offer nor the solicitation of an offer to sell or purchase any investment. Its comments are based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable but UOB Kay Hian Group makes no representations and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its completeness or accuracy.

19 October 2015

SP: First Resources - 3Q15: Strong Production To Cushion Price Weakness (BUY/Target: S$2.40) by Singapore Research Team



Singapore: First Resources (FR SP)                BUY

Price/Tgt: S$1.78/2.40        Mkt Cap: US$2.0b        Avg Val: US$3.0m     Hi/Lo: S$2.19/1.47

3Q15: Strong Production To Cushion Price Weakness

What's new


·        First Resources (FR) announced Sep 15 production data.  As expected, FFB production for Sep 15 fell 3% mom after peaking in Aug 15.  But production was still up 18.8% yoy, driven by larger mature areas, as young areas in Kalimantan moved into prime age, as well as on high production from Sumatra in 1H15.  
·        For 3Q15, CPO production surged 32.6% qoq and 8.1% yoy on the back of higher nucleus production. This would drive its 3Q15 earnings.

Figure 1: Monthly Production Summary
 (tonne)
Sep 15
mom % chg
yoy % chg
9M15
yoy % chg
Comments
Total Process
333,302
(2.9)
13.0
2,305,393
11.4
FFB Harvested
305,185
(2.6)
15.5
2,061,920
14.4
  Nucleus
278,787
(3.0)
18.8
1,861,975
15.1
The mom decline within expectation due to a higher base in August when harvesting picked up after workers returned from the Hari Raya break.
  Plasma
26,398
1.3
(10.5)
199,945
8.4
FFB Purchased
28,117
(5.4)
(9.0)
243,473
(8.9)
CPO
75,804
(2.2)
12.9
514,499
11.6
Palm Kernel
17,027
(3.9)
12.1
119,158
11.3
Blended FFB Yield (ton/ha)
2.1
-
5.0
13.9
1.5
Boost from young prime areas in Kalimantan.
CPO Yield (ton/ha)
0.5
-
-
3.2
OER (%)
23.1
0.4
-
22.8
0.9
Extraction rate improved with less third-party FFB processed.
PK Extraction Rate (%)
5.2
(1.9)
-
5.3
-

Source: FR, UOB Kay Hian


Comments

·        On track to meet expectations.  9M15 nucleus production rose 15.1%, ahead of our expectation of 12.8% yoy for 2015. We are keeping our forecast because: a) of the higher base in 4Q14, and b) current dryness and haze could delay the ripening process and result in smaller bunch sizes.
·        Based on the reported production data, FR's 3Q15 net profit would likely be flat qoq but lower yoy.  The higher qoq production is expected to be offset by lower average selling price (ASP). Also, 2Q15 sales were boosted by inventory drawdown.  The positive indicator to look out for in 3Q15 is its downstream business, which should perform better qoq on higher refining margins and volume.  Yoy, 3Q15 net profit would very much be affected by the much lower estimated ASP of US$500-530/tonne vs 3Q14's US$660/tonne. Refining EBITDA margin would also not be as high as 3Q14's US$49.4/tonne due to the absence of biodiesel sales volume as well as higher competition, but it should be better than the US$6.5/tonne in 2Q15.

Recommendation
·        Maintain BUY and target price at S$2.40, based on 15x 2016F PE. We like FR as it is a beneficiary of Indonesia's new export levy and biodiesel policies. It also has one of the lowest production costs and a good track record of delivering better-than-industry FFB yield and OER.

Figure 2: FR's Monthly Production
 
Source: FR




Regards,
Singapore Research Team

____________________________________________________
This transmission has been issued by a member of the UOB Kay Hian Group for the information of the addressee only and should not be reproduced and/or distributed to any other person. Each page attached hereto must be read in conjunction with any disclaimer which forms part of it. Unless otherwise stated, this transmission is neither an offer nor the solicitation of an offer to sell or purchase any investment. Its contents are based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable but UOB Kay Hian Group makes no representation and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its completeness or accuracy.

This transmission has been issued by a member of the UOB Kay Hian Group for the information of the addressee only and should not be reproduced and/or distributed to any other person. Each page attached hereto must be read in conjunction with any disclaimer which forms part of it. Unless otherwise stated, this transmission is neither an offer nor the solicitation of an offer to sell or purchase any investment. Its comments are based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable but UOB Kay Hian Group makes no representations and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its completeness or accuracy.

18 October 2015

How to make passive income from the Internet?

First thing first. This is not a scam.

It is possible to make money from the internet.

And i do not mean from stocks investing and trading. I mean from the internet.

Yes it can be done, but it requires a LITTLE bit of effort and time.

This is the pay check i just received after working on it for about 1 year.



So being straight to the point and not wasting your time, all you need to do is to sign up with the following links. Afterwhich, you will need to do some daily surveys which will be sent to your email.

Bit by bit, and by the time you know it, it's quite a sum of money.

Plus, by using the following links, you get a higher commission rates too.

Sign up all to maximise your income! Nothing to lose, give it a try. :)










16 October 2015

UOBKH: Retail Market Monitor: Friday, October 16, 2015

as mentioned earlier, can note QnM dental.


RECEIPT OF APPROVAL IN-PRINCIPLE FROM THE SINGAPORE EXCHANGE SECURITIES TRADING LIMITED ("SGX-ST") FOR THE LISTING AND QUOTATION OF CONSIDERATION SHARES IN CONNECTION WITH THE ACQUISITION OF TP DENTAL SURGEONS PTE. LTD.

Please look for a good entry price.






Click on the link for details.


https://research.uobkayhian.com/content_download.jsp?id=30716&h=fee6e6bfe55024e4ae92983d776ecd56



This transmission has been issued by a member of the UOB Kay Hian Group for the information of the addressee only and should not be reproduced and/or distributed to any other person. Each page attached hereto must be read in conjunction with any disclaimer which forms part of it. Unless otherwise stated, this transmission is neither an offer nor the solicitation of an offer to sell or purchase any investment. Its comments are based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable but UOB Kay Hian Group makes no representations and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its completeness or accuracy.

14 October 2015

SINGAPORE: Lian Beng 1QFY16 Results Flash Note (Meet expectations)

Morning,


SG quarter growth GDP = 0.1%, revising this year's growth from 1.8% to 1.4%

Given the current economic backdrop, construction stocks may be coming up next. Based on trading activity, I have noticed quite a bit of buyups for this counter LianBeng.

Yet on the other hand, please note that construction counters are generally quiet; not much volume.

Something to consider.

SINGAPORE: Lian Beng 1QFY16 Results Flash Note (Meet expectations)

Company
Share Price
Recommendation
Our Target Price
Within
Expectation (Y/N)
1QFY16 net profit YoY
Highlights of Results
Lian Beng (LBG SP) 0.51 BUY 0.79 Y +169% See comments attached


1QFY16 net profit surged 169% to S$32.3m (representing 36% of our full year forecast) due mainly to the recognition of property development profits namely Newest, KAP residences, Eco-tech@Sunview and The Midtown. Gross profit however fell 8.5% due to lower sales from the construction and ready mixed concrete segment. As at 31 Aug 15, Lian Beng has an order book of S$452m.

Healthy net gearing. Lian Beng continue to maintain a healthy net gearing of 26.4%.

Pending the results briefing on Thursday, we maintain our BUY recommendation and SOTP target price of S$0.79. Of note, Lian Beng is currently trading at 0.53x P/B, 2.9x FY16F PE with a FY15 dividend yield of 5.9%.

Link to results: http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/Results.ashx?App=Announcement&FileID=373299


Thanks

Regards

Loke Chunying
UOB Kay Hian Research
DID: +65-6590 6637
Email:
cyloke@uobkayhian.com


This transmission has been issued by a member of the UOB Kay Hian Group for the information of the addressee only and should not be reproduced and/or distributed to any other person. Each page attached hereto must be read in conjunction with any disclaimer which forms part of it. Unless otherwise stated, this transmission is neither an offer nor the solicitation of an offer to sell or purchase any investment. Its comments are based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable but UOB Kay Hian Group makes no representations and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its completeness or accuracy.

13 October 2015

SP: Money Talk: CSE Global (CSE SP): A Software Technology Company Rather Than O&G Play






Click on the link for details.


https://research.uobkayhian.com/content_download.jsp?id=30703&h=86113dc59e768c1d1a462f18a5d458a0



This transmission has been issued by a member of the UOB Kay Hian Group for the information of the addressee only and should not be reproduced and/or distributed to any other person. Each page attached hereto must be read in conjunction with any disclaimer which forms part of it. Unless otherwise stated, this transmission is neither an offer nor the solicitation of an offer to sell or purchase any investment. Its comments are based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable but UOB Kay Hian Group makes no representations and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its completeness or accuracy.

11 October 2015

Trading Insights - How To Win Consistently In Today's Markets

First off, thank you all for your emails and I love the communications that we are having. The past few weeks has been exciting due to macro events, such as China Caixin PMI, US NFP and the much awaited interest rate decision in Sept.

After much encouragements from my readers, I decided to conduct a small class for you all. It is also easier for me to teach and share more efficiently to a wide audience at a short period of time. That said, it is almost impossible for me to convey all such by writing in blogpost.

The aim of this course is:


  • To MAXIMISE wins and MINIMISE losses consistently by :-


– Understanding yourself

– Understanding others (opponents)

– Developing trading/investing strategies

– Mastering on available tools

– Knowing 'dirty' trading tips and tricks


I will be touching on the following:
  • Investor or Trader?
    • Types of investors
    • Investor's Tools
    • Types of Traders


  • Trading Style
    • You Vs Other Traders
    • Behaviours of Other Traders
  • Chart Reading
    • 4 Basic Chart Readings
    • Long Term Vs Short Term
    • Advanced Indicator
  • Summary

Venue and details will be sent out separately.


I have also included the contact form so that you can reach out to me easier.

Cheers!
//amazon