30 May 2016

US Apr 16 FOMC Minutes

looking back, and comparing to the latest  Yellen's comments, rate hikes should be quite possible.

Clients pls re adjust your portfolop.



US Apr 16 FOMC Minutes: Don't Rule Out June

 
The April FOMC Minutes Is Read As Hawkish With Most Fed Participants Explicitly Naming June As  "Likely Would Be Appropriate" To Raise Rates Provided The US Economic Growth Pick Up In 2Q
 
The US Federal Reserve have put back a potential June rate hike into play again with its April 2016 FOMC meeting minutes, in particular with this paragraph within the text:
 
"Participants agreed that their ongoing assessments of the data and other incoming information, as well as the implications for the outlook, would determine the timing and pace of future adjustments to the stance of monetary policy. Most participants judged that if incoming data were consistent with economic growth picking up in the second quarter, labor market conditions continuing to strengthen, and inflation making progress toward the Committee's 2 percent objective, then it likely would be appropriate for the Committee to increase the target range for the federal funds rate in June(
1). Participants expressed a range of views about the likelihood that incoming information would make it appropriate to adjust the stance of policy at the time of the next meeting(2). Several participants were concerned that the incoming information might not provide sufficiently clear signals to determine by mid-June(3) whether an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate would be warranted. Some participants expressed more confidence that incoming data would prove broadly consistent with economic conditions that would make an increase in the target range in June(4) appropriate. Some participants were concerned that market participants may not have properly assessed the likelihood of an increase in the target range at the June(5) meeting, and they emphasized the importance of communicating clearly over the intermeeting period how the Committee intends to respond to economic and financial developments."
 
At the same time, we have some FOMC members expressing concerns that "the likelihood implied by market pricing that the Committee would increase the target range for the federal funds rate at the June(6) meeting might be unduly low."
 
Based on the quotes cited above, there were 6 mentions of the June meeting in a policy context in that short amount of text (see the numbers highlighted in red). And with several district Fed Presidents in recent weeks, reiterating the June meeting being a "live" meeting and not to rule out a mid-year rate hike, this in our view means that the possibility of a June rate hike is certainly not dead yet. And not surprisingly, the odds for Fed rate hike action in June jumped. Based on trading in futures and options data compiled by Bloomberg, the probability of a 25bps Fed rate hike in June 2016 FOMC lunged higher to 32% (18 May) from just 4% at the start of the week (16 May) while the chance of a July hike also jumped to 47% (from 19.4% on 16 May).
 

Our Fed Outlook – Keeping Our Two 25-bps Rate Hike Trajectory In 2016, Focus Is On Yellen
 
We are keeping our projection for the US Fed policy trajectory to remain at two 25bps rate hikes in 2016 (one in each half of the year – at the 14/15 June and 13/14 December FOMC meetings) to bring the FFTR to 1% by end-2016. But nothing is cast in stone and there remains a lot of uncertainty on the 2016 outlook and importantly, the risk still looks tilted towards the downside so we may yet see a shallower rate trajectory. That said, barring any external risk event, we believe that the Fed will do at least one hike in 2016 (not zero), probably pushing that decision right to the end in the December FOMC if needed, just like in 2015.
 
But perhaps more important than data is the Fed speak leading up to the June FOMC decision and the most watched Fed speaker will certainly be the FOMC Chair Janet Yellen. Yellen is scheduled to attend the G7 finance ministers & central bank governors' Meeting at Sendai, Japan on 20-21 May 2016. Thereafter, Yellen will speak at two events: firstly, at Harvard University's Radcliffe Day on 27 May (10:30pm Singapore time) which according to the program details, Yellen will be engaged in "a conversation about her ground-breaking achievements" and secondly, at the World Affairs Council of Philadelphia on 6 June (7 June, 12:30am Singapore time) where Yellen will deliver a luncheon event address. And yet the biggest issue troubling the Fed Reserve ahead of its 14/15 June FOMC is an international one that is the UK referendum on whether to stay in the EU that will take place a week after the June FOMC on 23 June 2016.
 

26 May 2016

Qns to SGSAS: How is it possible to gain positive returns with charged commissions?





Qns received:   

"I have queries after reading the latest post. By starting with S$1,000, how is it possible to gain back positive returns since there would be commission/brokerage fee charged? It is possible, but that would mean each investment be up at least 4 BIDS. I am just curious about how to start with a $1,000 portfolio and turn it 2 fold like how Darrell Lim did(Straits times post). Or is it because they do not need to pay brokerage fees and all that? Thanks for taking the time to read this. Much appreciated if you could help fill in the gaps for me."




Thank you for your email. Some points to clear the misunderstandings.

1. First off, every client will need to pay brokerage fees.  And in my case, I am not commission based. Most of the fees are going to SGX and backend offices who are preparing the purchased shares. Even for staffs like us, we need to pay a fee too. 

2. as shared in my comments, you need to have consistent wins. That's where brokers can come in to share views. While brokers are also human, we get to see/hear things in the trading room. I suggest you keep in touch with your brokers. Company S and I maybe charging low fees but there is no free lunch in this world. Reason being, they (custodian brokerage houses) are the market makers who may trade against you. Thus, you will find that many times you get stuck in a position of a certain counter.

3. Discipline is very important. When I was young, I was rash and impatient. I cannot stand my money sitting in the bank. I find it as a waste of time. Eventually, you will see that stock market rewards the patient ones. If you allow me to use an analogy, which fisherman will fish in a storm with a 'sampan' (a small boat)? That said, why would you risk yourself unnecessarily by fishing in the stormy seas?

4. as attached. 24%. unlikely they are aiming for a few pips. they are investing for 10-20% returns in the market with their small capital. The figures are taken based on Parkson Retail previously. 



Inline images 2


What you have learnt, you pass it forward. And that's the purpose of the blog. Hope that helps. Cheers!

25 May 2016

Sino Grandness, QnM mermaid maritime

Stocks to note:


  1. Sino Grandness,
  2. QnM
  3. mermaid maritime


Market should rally today taking cue from US last night. However, please rem to take profit along the way.

3 Reasons Why Zero Trading Fee Is Bad for Clients.


Good or bad? Commission-free stock trading by year-end?



If you have a habit of checking the business news every day, you will not have missed out this epic headline today. As a consumer, cheap and good is the way to go. If there is to be cheaper and better, without compromising the quality, then cheaper than cheap is the way to go.

Why are we even paying trading fees to get into the market? Can you imagine how great would that be to not care about breakeven prices after buying into certain shares? That said, why are we even paying such fees to the brokerage houses? In fact, why should we even be paying to enter the market at all?

In case you didn't know, stockbrokers have to pay trading fees too.

Is this a good thing for investors, traders and even speculators?

Certainly from the consumers' point of view, it is! How can that be not? Anyone who thinks otherwise is certainly out of their mind.

But is this the case?

I shall present you my 3 points with regards to this article:



1. First off, the brokerage fees are, in general, paid to settle the shares scripts that are purchased. 


This includes the brokers who do the work to prepare and report the shares, assisting clients with payments and of course, guiding the client in the market. There will be backend operations staffs who help to generate the contra, purchase and sales statements, to receive local and overseas bank transfers, to settle foreign currencies and etc. Basically all the after purchase or sale operations.

The solution to allow commission-free trading would be to streamline the workflow and replace by automation, computer processes and other more robust and effective methods.

However, not all the transactional process can be replaced. Due to money laundering issues, there has to be human involvement in the processing to serve judgement and, not to mention, as a form of security too. This is especially so if the client was to transfer big amount (S$5m or so) over to settle the payments. On the other hand in this IT age, I strongly believe most clients will be savvy enough to settle any simple and straightforward online procedures. So long as it is not a large sum of money, it should be easy to fulfil the shares purchase.

Unfortunately, monetary settlements are not the only part of the shares transaction. The SG market does not just close at 5pm. From 5pm to 7pm, there are reporting and matching of trades to be done. To my best knowledge, settlement of shares has to be completed by 7pm. Furthermore, the matching of shares is only to be done from 5pm to 7pm. If matching is not completed, the counterparty will not be able complete the transaction too.

Then the tricky part is, what if some clients had oversold the shares? They will have to write SGX for this matter, to report and get pardoned. Failing to do so, there will be a penalty of S$1000.

Shares transactions have to be fulfilled on the same day, if not the market will be in great chaos and confusion the next day. Can anyone imagine that the Singtel shares that client has purchased resulted in a void trade because the counterparty did not have the shares to sell away in the first place?

But the question is, will clients do all of such? Will they be available from 5 to 7pm to complete the shares transactions in the day? Or will they just pay a small fee and get someone else to do it?



2. Do we need human brokers then? 


Clients can place trades online with commission-free stock trading. Brokerage houses shall keep just the operations team to handle the post-market transactions.

From the other point of view, brokerage houses are incurring costs to keep the operations people to serve clients. Not to forget, there are stock analysts from research departments to provide stock coverage too. There have to be some forms of revenue coming from somewhere to offset all these costs. Which business will be willing and wanting to run a loss-making business? Totally good for the investors and traders but bad for brokerage houses.


Brokers will have a change of roles by then. No more serving of clients, no more of handling clients' transactional procedures. Will they be unemployed and be redundant?

Naturally brokerage houses will still be seeking some forms of revenue to offset the costs to support the clients who are now not paying anything for the trades done.

Guess what will happen next?

One, I foresee that brokerage houses will unleash the army of stockbrokers to trade on behalf of the company. There will be a profit sharing scheme between the house and brokers. Something similar to proprietary traders.

That means to say, brokers will be trading against clients. If the client is not sharp or experienced, a client will stand to lose more given that brokers have more tools at his disposal. There will be other market participants too, but the point being is that brokers have more time to trade.

Two, brokerage houses will become Bucket Shop Operators. Client's transaction goes "in the bucket" and is never executed. Without an actual underlying transaction, the customer is betting against the bucket shop operator, not participating in the market at all. Alternatively, the bucket shop operator "literally 'plays the bank,' as in a gambling house, against the customer.



3. In the article, there is Chole. 


It is an artificial intelligence system that gives investment advice. Yes, human brokers will then be redundant. Who needs a human to read and share technical tips and investing ideas when you have a rational and razor sharp intelligent system to effectively mark out the entry and exit prices of every stock? Isn't it perfect?

Yet, what if the system is overwhelmed by abnormalities? That is to say, the day volume on a particular stock has exceeded the average volume over many times. Simply based on numbers is not sufficient.

Or worse still, what if the system is rigged for some selfish and dark reasons?


Your comments?







Taken from: http://www.straitstimes.com/business/invest/commission-free-stock-trading-by-year-end

8 Securities chairman Mathias Helleu (left) and chief executive Mikaal Abdulla are aiming to expand into Australia, Indonesia, the Middle East, India and the US as well as Singapore. PHOTO: 8 SECURITIES

Investors here might soon be able to trade stocks using their phones and without needing to pay any commission.

Hong Kong-based firm 8 Securities is seeking regulatory approval and hopes to launch the service by the end of the year, co-founder and chief executive Mikaal Abdulla told The Straits Times.

The company also plans to roll out its "robot-adviser" service - an artificial intelligence system that gives investment advice.

The firm's platform is already being used in Japan and Hong Kong, where it allows users to trade over 15,000 United States, Hong Kong and China H-shares and exchange traded funds (ETFs) for free. Users do not need to maintain a minimum balance in accounts they open or pay account fees.

The trading platform was launched in 2012 and 8 Securities now holds over US$600 million (S$828 million) in customer assets.

Its robot-adviser service, launched in Hong Kong and Japan over a year ago, is named Chloe and helps investors set goals based on their age, annual income and risk profile.

Once the customer chooses his goal, he is shown a projection of when he can realistically achieve it based on low-, medium- and higher-risk investments in exchange- traded funds.

"Until now, 90 percent of the population is not able to access wealth management services because the entry price has traditionally been so high and the fees are significant," said Mr Abdulla.

"Robo-advisers solve this problem. They give everyone an opportunity to own a globally diversified portfolio that is rebalanced. Customers can enter and exit with no penalty."

Investors can monitor the performance of their portfolio at any time. "Financial advisers sleep while Chloe is always available," he added.

The company plans to set up an office in Singapore, said Mr Abdulla, who added that it has had several discussions with the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and is preparing its licensing application.

"Relative to other geographies, Singapore and the MAS are taking a very forward-looking view of fintech," he said.

Besides Singapore, 8 Securities is also exploring potential markets in Australia, Indonesia, the Middle East, India and the United States.

The firm has raked in US$25 million in funding since its founding in 2010 and is in the process of raising another US$20 million to power its regional expansion.

Mr Abdulla declined to reveal the company's sales figures but said turnover is expected to rise 300 or 400 percent over the next year.

The firm is generating revenue not just from its trading and robo-adviser services but also from interest income on customer's cash deposits and currency exchange.

The company expects to launch margin trading next year, he added.

Before starting 8 Securities, Mr Abdulla and co-founder Mathias Helleu managed online discount stock brokerage firm E*Trade across Asia, Europe, the Middle East, India and Canada.

Brokerages here said clients still see value in their strengths.

Ms Kwang Sook Fong, the head of marketing communications at Phillip Securities, said: "Throughout the years, there have been many new competitors and we welcome them to the industry. We do offer our clients free commission on a promotional basis but, ultimately, we believe in looking beyond just the rates."

The firm tailors its approach to clients based on their investment preferences - some are more self-directed while others require more personalised services, she said.

OCBC Securities managing director Raymond Chee said emerging financial technologies such as robo-advisers might "appeal to certain segments of investors, including those who are new to investing".

"We are open to exploring and adopting such new technologies where appropriate, to complement and broaden the range of services we offer to our customers," he said.

Correction note: This story has been updated to reflect the correct currency conversion. We are sorry for the error.

24 May 2016

Congrats to clients who profited on QnM Dental!



Currently, QnM is at 0.795/0.800.

Cheers to my clients who are making money on my previous buy call on QnM Dental. QnM currently standing at 0.795/0.800 as of now. Though some of the research reports I read valuated it around S$0.9 - $1.00, I always believe in locking in some profits first, and buy back on dips. A curved line is longer than a straight line, of course, the market is not always the same as our expectations. there will be risks too.



please refer to the previous buy call here

21 May 2016

For friends who are keen in Bonds


There is a new website http://www.utradebond.com/ by UOB Kay Hian.

It contains the information of the bonds, classified by sectors, maturity dates, currency and ratings.

have a look.









19 May 2016

Sign up FREE for Singapore Market Report (SMR) newsletter

Sharing a free market newsletter which is doing some promotion currently.


https://wn.nr/FJ6SBp

Singapore Air forms new company to manage two budget carriers

For my friends whom i spoke to over the phone when SIA shares dropped. This article explains the massive drop 3-4 days back. Also as written in my previous email, SIA has budget lines too.






SINGAPORE (May 18): Singapore Airlines, seeking to restructure its budget airline business, established a new holding company to manage its two low-fare carriers amid speculation of a consolidation in the region.

Budget Aviation Holdings will control long-haul carrier Scoot and short-haul carrier Tiger Airways, allowing for greater integration and sharing of operations and planning, Singapore Air said in a statement Wednesday.

Lee Lik Hsin, currently chief executive officer of Tiger Airways, will head the holding company and Singapore Air CEO Goh Choon Phong will be chairman.

The new structure comes after Singapore Air, Southeast Asia's biggest airline by market value, took Tiger Airways private by buying out small shareholders following losses racked up by the carrier amid competition and overcapacity. Earlier this week, eight budget carriers in the Asia Pacific region from Australia to Japan formed a one-of-a-kind alliance, prompting some analysts to speculate the industry is ripe for a consolidation.

 "The holding company structure will drive a deep integration of our low-cost subsidiaries, which are important parts of our portfolio strategy," Mr Goh said in the statement. Goh had said last week that he "can't rule out" a merger between Tiger and Scoot.

Both carriers are fully owned by Singapore Air. Scoot CEO Campbell Wilson will return to the parent company in a senior role, according to the statement.

- See more at: http://smr.theedgemarkets.com/article/singapore-air-forms-new-company-manage-two-budget-carriers?utm_source=Singapore+Market+Report&utm_campaign=c4d4cc9508-19052016SMR&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_46b7beec93-c4d4cc9508-87283825#sthash.MHCc2fy0.dpuf


18 May 2016

Successful Mermaid maritime contra gains!

Congrats to my contra clients who sold some with small profits today again.

More to come. Just wait for it.

Volume is low, that's where the bb (big buyer) is buying. Till when volume is high, that's when you should sell.

To have first hand info, get into my email list. I serve my clients first and together we swim against the market.

Mermaid Maritime, QnM, ThaiBev

Feds mentioned it's possible to hike rates over the next few months this year. Figures from US economy proves to be relatively well and robust, except some soft spots in some months. Oil's rally hit a plateau and is hanging around 48+ within the last 24 hours

I'm expecting some background profit taking today, along with retail buyings who are chasing the yesterday's rally. there might be some laggard stocks which may rally today. my 2 cents

Lastly, I understand that it is impossible for me to email any short term trades at short notice. My friend suggested to me to Whatsapp/text him of any short term stocks worth looking at. if you are keen, please leave me your number. If I spot anything, I will mass whatsapp all. However, please note short term trades are volatile. you should have a cut loss plan if it turns against you.


Short term trades to note: 
  1. Mermaid Maritime (Oversold, given current oil price, it should recover )
  2. QnM
    (broken out from the trend yesterday. may be looking for the next resting price. Quarter results not out yet, so i am guessing some upcoming pending news. )
  3. ThaiBev (the current price action i believe is due to fund houses buying into the shares. Based on credit Suisse and Morgan Stanley, valuation is around 0.90 to 1.00. Thus i believe that this is not over yet. Let it cool down first.)













KEY HIGHLIGHTS

Sector        
Plantation

1Q16 results review: Mixed results; earnings dragged by low production and ASP but mitigated by higher sales volumes and improved downstream operations.

At A Glance
Corporate
Hyflux: Offers $S300m perpetual securities.
Noble: Fitch downgrades Noble's credit rating to junk.

Sector
Technology: NTU launches research centre for 3D printing.
Venture Capital: NRF to put up S$85m VC funds jointly with CapitaLand, DeClout, Wilmar and YCH.

Economics
Economy: Still no silver lining in sight for non-oil domestic exports.
Politics: There's room for Singapore-Russia trade to grow: PM Lee.

Click on the link for details.


https://research.uobkayhian.com/content_download.jsp?id=34109&h=11db6a59100b3e48e6aa854e126f7059

17 May 2016

Contra BUY calls for this week: Mermaid Maritime (DU4)

Oil currently at 47.81.

note the good and quiet oil related counter for short trading gains:
  1. Mermaid Maritime (DU4)

Triple bottom forming. Meaning this is possibly the bottom price.

Entry price 0.103 
Exit price of 0.135
Cut loss 0.098










15 May 2016

The Straits Times : Starting young, starting early, 3 stories of smart investing

I extracted this report from ST times.

A lot of my friends and clients insist that they should start invest only when they have paid off loans, earned enough, etc. This is not entirely wrong to a certain extent.

The purpose of reporting the news article here is to share the common success keys among the 3 young investors.


  1. They start with a small amount. As little as S$1000.
  2. They are aware of the percentage return. That said, it is important not to have unrealistic gains of 20%, 50%. Have small consistent gains, than one big unstable windfall. 
  3. They invest in blue chip shares mostly.

Though these advice have been shared by me almost every time in my daily email and phone calls, not all clients are keen to hear it. Perhaps I'm just an 'ordinary' stockbroker that is still among the many stockbrokers. Hence, my good words fell on deaf ears. 

They want fast winnings, stock puntings and buy-sell calls from the brokers. I do that too in my daily emails. Yet, clients are humans as they prefer Ronald K, Divergence Trader, and the many many branded brokers with a 'brand'. Each has their uniqueness, merits and views. So do I. Perhaps I will start with a brand of my own one day.

As written in the introduction, I started investing when I was 18 years old. Went through the rights and the wrongs. I still remember as clear as day, my first stock I picked was Renewable Energy Asia Group (REAG). It has a good story; green energy and acquired licences for the wind farms in China. In the end, I cut my loss after I had learned more on Corporate Governance in school during the accounting lectures. Fast forward to today, the counter has been suspended.

As the years gone by, I started to venture into other markets too. Currently, I am into equities and FX trading. Since I have been spending most of my time reading up Singapore market, most of my funds are in SG market. And a small portion in FX. You can see my FX performance on the right-hand corner of this blog.

Thus in my line now, as an employed stockbroker by the company, I do my best to help every client. And I do mean every, single, client. It satisfies me to see clients able to trade for profits successfully in the market. Not just the monetary gains and satisfaction, it's about having another friend who will be able to discuss the market with me too, making money together.

Come tomorrow, let's make money together again! Cheers!







Taken from: http://www.straitstimes.com/business/invest/starting-young-starting-early-3-stories-of-smart-investing


Starting young, starting early: 3 stories of smart investing








(From left) Ernest Ong, Darrell Lim and Malcolm Chan. ST PHOTOS: DESMOND WEE, AZMI ATHNI, DIOS VINCOY JR
Onerous school assignments, the pressure to keep up an active social life, Facebook and YouTube.
These are just some of the demands on a young person's time, so you would think the last thing on a youngster's mind would be the serious world of investing.
Investment for many takes the form of spending time on school books so as to excel in studies and command a higher salary later .

So it is a pleasant surprise to find three young people who are passionate enough about investing to find time for this pursuit amid their hectic student lives.
Not only do they relish the thrill of trying to outsmart the market, but also they may reap plenty of financial benefits. GYC Financial Advisory notes that starting to invest early makes it easier for young people to save for the long term.
For example, a 20-year-old would need to save just $158 a month till he is 60 years old to have $1 million by then, assuming a compound annual rate of return of 10 per cent.
On the other hand, a 40-year-old would need to set aside $1,317 a month to hit $1 million at age 60.
The total amount of money invested in the first case is just $76,000, while in the second case, it is $316,000, GYC highlights in a report titled "Are youths ready for financial independence?"
Retirement may be far away for these young people but they are getting in early to acquire the knowledge - and build the capital - to secure a financially stable one.
The Sunday Times speaks to three young people on how they manage their portfolios.




Mr Ong is in the Singapore Management University's EYE Investment Club and a mentor encouraged him to return to investing. PHOTO: DESMOND WEE
Finance undergrad has yet to post a loss
Since he started investing in Singapore stocks last year, Mr Ernest Ong, 23, has not recorded a loss yet.
In fact, the return on his portfolio is a hefty 18 per cent. Its size is below $20,000.
He considers a four-day position in Bumitama Agri his best investment. He bought the stock in mid-March after learning that the El Nino phenomenon would drive palm oil prices up this year.
Within four days, the counter surged from about 81.5 cents to close at 95 cents. His returns were about $675 - about 13 per cent.
Another top bet was Silverlake Axis, which he bought after its share price dived when an analyst accused it of dishonest accounting practices. The second-year finance and accounting student still thought that consequences wouldn't be disastrous even if some of the claims were true. Moreover, the firm had a strong balance sheet.
He bought the counter in August and sold it in November, making a 23 per cent return.
He got interested in investing as a young boy while watching his mother call brokers or manage her portfolio online.
While in the army, he traded equities and options on United States bourses. He stopped briefly after that to focus on other pursuits.
Being involved in the EYE Investment Club at the Singapore Management University and having a mentor encouraged him to return to investing last year, this time on the Singapore Exchange.
He was the leader of a team that placed first in the NUS-SGX Stock Pitch Challenge held in March.
What's in your portfolio?
It consists of three stocks: SIA Engineering, which takes up 40 per cent; Global Logistic Properties, which makes up 40 per cent; and Silverlake Axis, which takes up 20 per cent.
What is your investing strategy?
A I first identify industries which have a positive outlook or in recovery by looking at research outlets, databases and news.




At Starbucks, Mr Lim saw first-hand how important the management team was to a firm's performance. This led him to invest in Olam. ST PHOTO: AZMI ATHNI
Getting a taste of quality management
A three-year stint at Starbucks shaped Nanyang Polytechnic third-year student Darrell Lim's investment strategy.
"The information flows more smoothly through the organisation than in one or two other places I had worked at before," he said.
"When somebody in a higher position disseminates information down, it can be seen very clearly what they expect from us as front- end sales providers for Starbucks."
He worked at a store for about 20 hours a week as a shift supervisor who served customers and oversaw service standards.
Through this, Mr Lim, 20, realised how important the management team was to a firm's performance. That insight led him to invest in agri business Olam International. He gained confidence in the firm upon reading about CEO Sunny Verghese's strong vision of expanding in India and his ability to execute in the firm's annual report.
"This is not easy. In fact, Apple recently tried to sell resale iPhones in India and met with resistance."
Mr Lim made his first investment of about $1,000 in Keppel DC Reit about 18 months ago. Today, his portfolio's value is $2,800. About 40 per cent is in Keppel DC Reit, 30 per cent is in OCBC and 30 per cent in Olam International.
When picking stocks, another key strategy is using estimates of future earnings posted on Bloom- berg to project what the stock's future valuation ratios (such as the price-to-earnings ratio) will be.
He then compares these ratios against present ratios of that stock, and ratios of similar stocks in the industry. He looks for stocks with a dividend yield of 5 to 6 per cent.
The investor's returns are about -2 per cent a year as his stake in Olam has suffered a 9 per cent drop in value. He remains optimistic, however, as he believes that the counter will appreciate in the long term.
Mr Lim led a three-man team that won the 13th annual Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group Trading Challenge this year.




Mr Chan took up the fund management course at Nanyang Polytechnic after secondary school. PHOTO: DIOS VINCOY JR FOR THE STRAITS TIMES
SMU student manages $30,000 portfolio
A decision to specialise in fund management after secondary school jump-started 23-year-old Malcolm Chan's investment journey.
"It was two days before I had to make my decision and I had gone for junior college open houses but I felt they did not really fit," he recalled.
His dad then suggested he consider the fund management course at Nanyang Polytechnic. He thought it a good idea, having had fun when his dad would buy shares and ask him to track their performance.
"I kind of knew I wanted to be in the finance industry back then."
Today, the second-year SMU student is the vice-president for research at the EYE Investment Club at SMU and manages a portfolio of about $30,000.
Q Describe your investing strategy
A I use technical analysis and look at indicators like stochastics (a gauge of momentum) and the relative strength index to pick out investments. I apply this to long-term investments, speculative trading and currency investing.
My first criterion is the stock needs to have an average daily trading volume of at least one million shares over three months. Technical analysis works best with stocks that have high trading volumes.
Before applying an indicator to a stock, I will also check to see how successfully it has predicted price movements in the past four years.
I usually use only three technical indicators as I find that using too many leads to "analysis paralysis". I have no particular preference for industries .
For my investments in currency, I also monitor central bank statements.
What's in your portfolio?
A I hold blue-chip and mid-cap stocks for the longer term and 70 per cent of my funds are in this account. My holding period has been on average two to three months - when prices hit stop-loss or take-profit targets, I will sell the stock.




Mr Ong's worst move to date was to reinvest in Silverlake Axis when the stock's price went down further. He had to wait a couple of months before the stock recovered and he could sell it. ST PHOTO: DESMOND WEE
Eyeing bonds and derivatives for diversity
For instance, I know that in 2016, the airline industry is in a recovery phase. It follows its own business cycle and has been underperforming in the past few years. Low oil prices will also support the industry as oil prices make up a quite a big proportion of airline company costs.
I also use basic technical analysis tools like support and resistance lines and trend lines to judge if it is a good time to buy.
Q What are your immediate investment plans?
A I intend to start investing in corporate bonds and derivatives like options and futures next year. Right now, I'm learning about how they work. How much I invest would depend on the outlook then.
TOOLS OF THE TRADE
I use basic technical analysis tools like support and resistance lines and trend lines to judge if it is a good time to buy .
'' MR ERNEST ONG, on his investment strategy.
The purpose is to diversify my portfolio.
Q What is your worst investment?
A I invested around $5,000 in Silverlake Axis shares in December last year after selling my first batch of Silverlake shares. I picked up the counter when it fell back to 64 cents from 72 cents. I was still optimistic on the stock, so when the price went down, I quickly reinvested...
The share price fell below 60 cents and I refused to liquidate the position, causing a lot of capital to be locked up in the stock.
Fortunately, the price rallied back... and I sold it.
Jeremy Koh




Mr Lim is considering taking lessons in additional mathematics and programming, which he thinks is the next big thing. PHOTO: AZMI ATHNI
Setting his sights on bond funds next
The field of nearly 500 teams included teams from United States universities like Carnegie Mellon University, as well as Canadian universities.
What are your future plans?
A I will invest in bond funds in two to three months' time to diversify my portfolio. I will invest about $2,000 to $3,000 depending on my returns then and my outlook for bonds then.
I will go for higher-risk funds like funds investing in corporate debt because I feel like I'm still young. I can afford to lose. It's time to step up and try new stuff. That's why I went into equities too.
I'm also considering taking private tuition for additional mathematics as I didn't take it during O levels, and lessons in programming as I think it will be the next big thing.
Q What's your worst investment?
A Investing quite a large amount of $1,000 in Keppel DC Reit as my first investment.
This was risky in hindsight, given that my investing ability was still at quite a novice level.
It dropped about 10 per cent in value because of the Chinese yuan devaluation and the concerns about the global economy that followed.
But the price has recovered to the same level I bought it at.
What's your best investment?
I entered OCBC in August last year at about $9.50 a share as I thought it was undervalued.
I had estimated that the price should be about $11 apiece. Estimates from Bloomberg were in line with this. Further, OCBC had been trading around $10.50 for the previous year.
The shares went down further after I bought them and are around 10 per cent down since. I still feel the stock will return to the $10 to $11 range though.
Jeremy Koh




Mr Chan is a second-year student at SMU and vice-president for research at the EYE Investment Club at SMU. PHOTO: DIOS VINCOY JR FOR THE SUNDAY TIMES
Equities are on the cards right now
Another 20 per cent is used on short-term trading and focuses on penny stocks.
A penny stock I am now holding is Ezra. I hope to make 20 to 25 per cent per annum in this segment of the portfolio.
I also have a forex trading account - 10 per cent of my portfolio is allocated there. I concentrate on currency pairs like the euro/United States dollar and the Australian dollar/US dollar. My annual returns are in line with that of The Straits Times Index over the last three years. I have made a net gain over this time.
Q What are your immediate investment plans?
A I am still holding on to cash - the 250-day moving averages are still pointing downwards and beginning to bottom out.
Nonetheless, I believe that there are short-term trading opportunities despite the current market.
I'm still young so I believe I can take measured risks. Hence equities are on the cards right now.
What has been your biggest investing mistake?
A In 2013, I invested $20,000 in a high-yield bond unit trust that was paying 6 per cent a year, without studying the required fees or the fund's past performance.
I was so happy when I started collecting dividends, but the net asset value of the fund was falling. The fund was hit by expectations that interest rates were going to rise
With the annual management fees and the initial cost of buying into the fund, I lost nearly 10 per cent when I exited in 2014 after a year.
Q And what has been your best investment move?
Around February this year, I did a trade on a company called Alliance Mineral.
I invested $2,000 when the share was eight cents. The price went up to 10.1 cents within about three weeks and I made a 25 per cent gain.
A version of this article appeared in the print edition of The Sunday Times

12 May 2016

Contra trade on Sino Grandness

congrats to clients who made on sino grandness. The results will be releasing today. I am guessing it is positive results, but i am expecting some retracement once the financial reports are released.

will share again when i can.




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https://research.uobkayhian.com/content_download.jsp?id=33973&h=b156dd7416c8124ee31921d2d6f3111c




This transmission has been issued by a member of the UOB Kay Hian Group for the information of the addressee only and should not be reproduced and/or distributed to any other person. Each page attached hereto must be read in conjunction with any disclaimer which forms part of it. Unless otherwise stated, this transmission is neither an offer nor the solicitation of an offer to sell or purchase any investment. Its comments are based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable but UOB Kay Hian Group makes no representations and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its completeness or accuracy.

09 May 2016

ECB Bulletin: Update on economic and monetary developments

ECB bulletin just published today, sharing with all my friends. A good summary, concise yet detailed on the major markets.



Brent crude oil prices have continued to recover since mid-March, reflecting a moderation in the global oil supply overhang and higher than expected global demand for oil.
Brent crude oil prices have traded in the range of USD 38-47 per barrel since mid-March 2016, trading at USD 47 per barrel on 28 April. This equates to a 67% increase compared with the 12-year lows recorded in mid-January. The recent increase in the oil price was underpinned by a moderation in the global oil supply overhang. In particular, OPEC output decreased in March 2016, mainly on account of supply disruptions in Iraq, Nigeria and the United Arab Emirates. In addition, oil demand was higher than expected in the first quarter of 2016, largely because of strong demand in India and other non-OECD Asian countries. Oil price volatility has decreased slightly since mid-March, but remains high. A number of factors have contributed to the current volatility, including geopolitical tensions, issues surrounding the return of Iran to the global oil market, uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook for EMEs and doubts about a deal between OPEC and leading non-OPEC producers to freeze output. The prices of non-oil commodities such as food and metals have remained stable in the period since mid-March. Looking ahead, the volatile geopolitical situation in the Middle East (notably Iraq) and in Nigeria continues to represent a short-term risk, potentially leading to further supply-side disruptions.


The soft patch in US activity appears to have continued into the first quarter of 2016, although underlying fundamentals remain healthy.
Following a moderate expansion of real GDP by an annualised rate of 1.4% in the fourth quarter of 2015, economic activity showed signs of further deceleration in the first quarter of 2016. In particular, high-frequency indicators for business equipment spending suggested only modest growth in business investment. While real consumption growth remained moderate in February, recent manufacturing data indicate improving conditions in the sector. Non-farm payrolls rose strongly in March and the labour force participation rate increased further, suggesting that previously discouraged workers are returning to the labour market. This resulted in only a small uptick in the unemployment rate, to 5.0%. Looking forward, the strengthening of the labour market is expected to support real income and consumption. Headline inflation remained low. Annual headline CPI inflation decreased slightly in March to 0.9%, from 1.0% in February, weighed down by energy and food prices. Excluding food and energy, annual CPI inflation declined to 2.2% in March, restrained by negative goods price inflation, but has been on a gradual upward trend since mid-2015.



In Japan, the growth momentum remains subdued.
Economic indicators at the start of 2016 continue to point to sluggish economic activity, following a quarter-on-quarter decline in real GDP of 0.3% in the last quarter of 2015. Recent surveys indicate that private consumption was weak at the start of the year. Industrial production also remained subdued, although this was largely due to one-off factors, while real exports staged a mild recovery. At the same time, survey indicators signalled some deterioration in business sentiment. Annual CPI inflation picked up from 0% in January to 0.3% in February, while annual CPI inflation excluding food and energy rose slightly, to 0.8%.

In the United Kingdom, GDP growth is expected to moderate.
In the fourth quarter of 2015 real GDP increased by 0.6% quarter on quarter, more than previously estimated and at a more rapid pace with respect to the previous quarter. As a result, annual GDP growth was 2.3% in 2015, compared with 2.9% in 2014. In the last quarter of 2015 economic growth was driven by solid private consumption, while investment growth turned sharply negative on the back of uncertainty regarding the pace of global demand and net exports continued to exert a drag on growth. Short-term indicators and surveys of business intentions suggest a moderate slowdown in the pace of GDP growth in the first half of 2016. The unemployment rate stabilised at 5.1% in the three months to January 2016, while earnings growth remained relatively subdued at 2.1%, despite improvements in labour market conditions. In February 2016 annual headline CPI inflation edged up to 0.3% owing to base effects stemming from energy prices, while inflation excluding food, energy, alcoholic beverages and tobacco declined marginally to 1.1%.

In China, available data remain consistent with a gradual slowdown in activity growth, which has been underpinned by policy support and rapid credit expansion.
In the first quarter China recorded GDP growth of 6.7% year on year, which was marginally below that recorded in the previous quarter but in line with the new growth target range set by Chinese authorities for 2016 (6.5-7.0%). The latest short-term indicators point to sustained economic momentum, with industrial production, fixed-asset investment, credit growth and retail sales showing some improvements. There are also signs of stabilisation in the housing market, with a modest rebound in residential investment and strong increases in house prices in the large cities. Conversely, trade data, which have shown a high degree of volatility in recent months, weakened in the first quarter of the year. Greater stability in financial markets and the Renminbi exchange rate has helped to alleviate some of the uncertainty which prevailed at the start of the year, while monetary accommodation and modest fiscal stimulus are expected to continue supporting demand.


Growth momentum remains weak and heterogeneous across other EMEs.
Activity has remained resilient in commodity-importing countries such as non-euro area central and eastern European countries and, to a lesser extent, India and Turkey, while growth continues to be very weak in commodity-exporting countries. In particular, latest short-term indicators suggest that the downturn in Brazil will continue into 2016. Political uncertainty, deteriorating terms of trade and tightening financing conditions are weighing heavily on economic activity. In line with expectations, economic activity in Russia declined again in the last quarter of 2015, following tentative signs of improvement in the third quarter of last year. Uncertainty remains high and business confidence weak, while lower oil revenues continue to restrain public expenditure.



06 May 2016

Mermaid Maritime (DU4)

Japan market has started today after 3 days of holidays this week.

I have been observing Mermaid and noticed that there are buyers around 0.107 range and below. Company wise may not be making as much profits as before, but based on the books, the company is sound. It is the subsidiary company of Thoresen Thai, which is also an investor in Sino Grandness.

Perhaps, Mermaid Maritime will be good trading in the short to medium period. Assuming that it will hit back the range of S$0.200, there is an upside of 0.200 to 0.107 = 0.093.

Technically, it is coming to form a triple bottom. and there is significant volume exchanged hands recently over the past several weeks. Fundamentally, probably this is due to the change of CFO recently. Quite similar to my previous buy call on Parkson Retail email, of which I bought at 0.158 and sold at 0.200

Worth to take a look. my 2 cents. Should you have information, please share with me too.


Mermaid Maritime (DU4)









KEY HIGHLIGHTS
Results        
Ascendas REIT (AREIT SP/BUY/S$2.40/Target: S$2.64)        
4QFY16: Strategic expansion of business park footprint.
StarHub (STH SP/SELL/S$3.30/Target: S$3.03)        
1Q16: Revenue headwinds broaden, but saved by lower subsidies.
Update        
Bumitama Agri (BAL SP/BUY/S$0.77/Target: S$1.30)        
Site visit reaffirms our expectation of stronger 2H16 production leading to positive FFB production growth for 2016; provides the best guidance for 2016 among peers.

At A Glance
Corporate        
Creative Technology: Reverses into black in 3QFY16 on gain from lawsuit settlement.
Frasers Hospitality Trust: Raises S$100m in maiden perps issue, prices at 4.45%.
Roxy-Pacific: 1Q16 net profit shrinks 79% to S$9.9m as revenue drops.
Singtel: Chairman Simon Israel to chair SingPost board too.
ST Engineering: ST Kinetics to divest stake in China subsidiary for Rmb200m.
Oxley Holdings: Sparkles in 3QFY16, thanks to projects and one-time gain.
Sector        
Property: EC e-applications not translating to sales.
Property: HDB resale volumes in April hit 3-year high as prices stabilise.

Click on the link for details.

https://research.uobkayhian.com/content_download.jsp?id=33885&h=a5220ac660ce8c78e452e5edc69d33cf















This transmission has been issued by a member of the UOB Kay Hian Group for the information of the addressee only and should not be reproduced and/or distributed to any other person. Each page attached hereto must be read in conjunction with any disclaimer which forms part of it. Unless otherwise stated, this transmission is neither an offer nor the solicitation of an offer to sell or purchase any investment. Its comments are based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable but UOB Kay Hian Group makes no representations and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its completeness or accuracy.
//amazon