29 July 2016

For my clients: SGX REITs order trades


Sharing this email message with my fellow blog readers. As a stockbroker, part of my job is to make investing as convenient as possible. Thus I sent this email out to my clients last week.

Between capital gains and dividend gains, naturally, we will take the one that is higher. Thus I came up with this idea to assist my clients with their trades. 

This is the closest thing to Auto trading.

Just imagine a system to maximise your profits. If the price is right, we sell for a profit first rather than waiting for dividends. While the trading fee will be slightly higher (0.5%), my clients do not need to worry much about missing out the price for I will be there to guard the price for them. 

10% of capital gains, rather than the dividend gains of 3-7%. 

Awesome! This probably qualifies to be one of my career highlights!

Details are in the email. :)





Hi all,


I understand that it is difficult for some of my clients to monitor the market to capitalise on market opportunities. This is especially so for dividend-yielding shares. Holding of shares does not guarantee the best bargain as whenever prices go up, it will come down eventually. And depending on market condition, it will go up again after some time.


Also, when a share is going to be announcing dividends, the share price tends to rise. And at times it may go much higher, and the price gain may be more than the dividends declared. Thus I am trying out an idea which I would like to share with all.

1.         I have grouped some of the SGX REITS into various industries for your preference. These are suggested counters, and it is not a recommendation.
2.         After confirmation, I will buy the shares for you, and queue to sell the REITs at the designated price on a daily basis. This will ensure that we can lock in the maximum gains if profits are more than dividends.
3.         This can be done for cash or CPF trades. For CPF trades, make sure you have linked your CPFIS account to UOB Kay Hian.

4.        As this is not trading but investing, there will be no cut loss if prices were to go lower. My suggestion is to split your money so that it is possible to average your positions if it goes lower.

5.        The trading fee will be 0.5% as I will be executing these trades on my terminal on a daily basis. When the buy/sell trade is completed, I will text or call to inform of the completion of trades.


Nonetheless, there will be market risks involved.

I strongly believe that this will be almost similar to automatic trading and it will bring the greatest convenience to all my clients.

Please feel free to feedback and share your views. File as attached



This transmission has been issued by a member of the UOB Kay Hian Group for the information of the addressee only and should not be reproduced and/or distributed to any other person. Each page attached hereto must be read in conjunction with any disclaimer which forms part of it. Unless otherwise stated, this transmission is neither an offer nor the solicitation of an offer to sell or purchase any investment. Its comments are based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable but UOB Kay Hian Group makes no representations and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its completeness or accuracy.



28 July 2016

Qns to SGSAS: How (is SGSAS) able to help me make better trading decisions and recoup my losses?






Hi, 

I came across your blog and saw some advices on stocks. I've been trading for past 2 years, based on some other bloggers advises but so far I've been making losses. I'm just wondering if you are different from other bloggers and if you are able to help me make better trading decisions and recoup my losses. Thanks.






Thank you for your email.

I dare not say that I am better than other bloggers, and it will be darn outrightly arrogant to say that I am one of the best.

What I do for my clients is to share information and explain some of the shares movements. This first understanding of shares is important because share movements are ultimately due to buyers and sellers. A misconception is share price will increase or decrease by itself. This is absurd.

To make money from the market, there is no single formula or an one-size-fits-all-plan. You will need to understand your own behaviour, how you respond and react to the market. Many times because the more we are afraid to lose, the more we react violently to any market changes, both positively and negatively. That said I dare to say that not everyone is suited to be a trader.

Then again, it should not be a grave disappointment if one is not suited to be a trader. A profitable trader may not be a great investor and vice versa. If you find that this method is not working out for you, it is necessary to reflect upon the trade mistakes you have made. As Warren Buffet says, the first rule of investment is not to lose money. So whatever that you are doing, you might need to reconsider. Changing to buy other shares does not help much, so is changing the market or sad to say, changing your broker.

I am currently launching an investment plan for my clients, to lock in the profits when it's greater than dividends. I think this will be very useful for clients who are not free to watch the market. You are free to join me. 

Also next month I will be presenting a crash course at SAFRA to explain how to trade and invest. I will share more details on my blog when it is finalised.

Hope this will clear your views. Cheers!

27 July 2016

3 Asian Investment Strategies If Trump Wins?


SINGAPORE (July 26): Asia will be on the “front line” if Donald Trump follows through on his main campaign pledges.

From protectionism to regional security and US macro policy, Asia could see a period of “risk and uncertainty” should Trump emerge victorious at the US Presidential Election in November.

“A Trump presidency would no doubt hurt Asia’s GDP growth and could ultimately drive cost-push inflation, impart smaller trade surpluses and looser macroeconomic policies,” says Nomura in a report on Monday.

Trump has said he would brand China as a currency manipulator and raise import tariffs, as well as withdraw from trade treaties such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).

While he has pledged to bolster the US military presence in Asia, he also said he intends to force America’s allies, including Japan and South Korea, to meet the full cost of its security guarantees. This could result in a scaling back of US military engagement in Asia instead.

Nomura says this could destabilise regional security, particularly in the South China Sea and the Korean Peninsula.

A tribunal at the UN-backed Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague earlier this month ruled that some of China's expansionary tactics in the South China Sea were illegal, handing an emphatic legal victory to the Philippines.

China claims most of the sea, which is disputed by the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei, who all have rival claims.

“At this early, speculative stage, our analysis indicates that South Korea and the Philippines would be among Asia’s most vulnerable in terms of both economic and geopolitical channels,” Nomura adds.

Nomura highlights some investment strategies to adopt if Trump makes it to the White House.

1) FX strategy
Direct risks to foreign exchange in Southeast and South Asia are likely to be less severe than in Northeast Asia, says Nomura.

In Asia, Nomura recommends being short Chinese yuan and Korean won, and long Indonesian rupiah and Malaysian ringgit.

“We believe the impact on IDR and MYR would be more contained, given robust growth, relatively favourable political and policy developments and bond inflows into both countries,” Nomura says.


2) Rates strategy
Nomura believes a Trump victory is likely to make central banks shift their bias further towards easier-for-longer policies.

“In such an environment we expect investors to focus on high-quality carry trades where an idiosyncratic domestic story is favourable for local rates,” Nomura says.

This would benefit rates market in Korea, India, Malaysia and Australia, while Hong Kong and Singapore are likely to underperform US rates.

“As far as trade recommendations are concerned, we believe receive 3yr MYR NDIRS; long 7yr MGS; long 7yr IGB; receive AUD 2yrfwd1yr IRS; receive KRW 3yr; and receive THB 5yr positions would perform,” says Nomura.

“We would express our view of HKD and SGD rate underperformance via pay HKD 5yr vs USD 5yr and pay SGD 2yr vs USD 2yr positions,” it adds.


3) Equity strategy
If Trump becomes president, Nomura says “an initial negative reaction in equities” is likely, but the longer term impact on equities beyond that is unclear.

China, Korea and the Philippines are likely to be most affected, followed by India, Singapore and Indonesia in the next group, and the least impact seen in Thailand and Malaysia.

“Specifically, we would expect our Asia Arms Race basket (rising risks of confrontation in the region), defensive stocks in Thailand and Malaysia (markets least impacted), and higher-yield stocks (to the extent that a Trump presidency contributes to lower global yields) to outperform,” says Nomura.

“Longer-term, downsides to growth and rising uncertainty in policy would imply a further flattening of our expected trend for Asian equities over the next 12-24 months,” Nomura adds.



Taken from: http://www.theedgemarkets.com/en/node/293955
























25 July 2016

5 reasons To Buy Mermaid Maritime (CIMB,MayBank BUY Call)




Stock has superb growth potential, argues Maybank.

Investors should consider adding Mermaid Maritime to their portfolio, said Maybank, as the company has strong earnings prospects.

Mermaid is benefiting from robust oilfield and drilling demand, and is poised to secure lucrative contracts with big players in the market such as Malaysia's SapuraKencana.

Here's more from Maybank:

Growth story in the making; initiate with BUY. We initiate coverage of Mermaid Maritime with a BUY and TP of SGD0.61, implying a 20% upside. Earnings should remain robust in FY9/14E, buoyed by a USD650m orderbook (including an unrecognised portion of a USD530m Saudi Aramco subsea contract), which practically guarantees a diluted EPS growth of 212%. But the larger investment case is Mermaid’s potential evolvement into an integrated oilfield services player a la Malaysia’s SapuraKencana, which the market has yet to price in.

Industry dynamics in its favour. Mermaid is in a sweet spot to scale up its business as offshore oil and gas spending picks up pace. We see favourable industry dynamics, characterised by (1) high oil prices keeping E&P activities and drilling demand elevated, (2) 2013-2017 subsea sector spending likely to double vis-à-vis the preceding five years, and (3) Thailand’s national oil company PTTEP’s higher capex budget of USD25b for 2013-2017 (vs ~USD9b for 2008-2012).

New board = Fresh opportunities. Mermaid’s new board of directors, put in place in Jul 2012, comprises two influential members. One is Mr Chalermchai Mahagitsiri, from the politically well-connected Mahagitsiri family in Thailand, who is keen to create a new legacy and unlock shareholder value. The other is Mr Prasert Bunsumpun, the former CEO of PTT Plc (eight years) and chairman of PTTEP (three years), whose presence would help open doors for Mermaid to secure contracts in Thailand, if not from PTTEP directly.

Low gearing = More assets in the pipeline. While growth is limited by a lack of assets, Mermaid’s strong balance sheet suggests ample headroom to bulk up. With USD105m in its coffers, it intends to invest in two new tender rigs which should drive a 21% EPS growth in FY9/16E. Any profitable charter contract that Mermaid can secure for its new assets prior to delivery would give its stock price a lift, in our view.

Strong growth prospects merit premium valuations. We base our target price of SGD0.61 on 14x FY9/14E P/E or an implied 1.2x FY9/14E P/BV. In our view, a premium P/E multiple (vis-à-vis stock history) is warranted, given Mermaid’s (1) projected three-year EPS CAGR of 59%, (2) scalability into an integrated oil and gas services player, and (3) strong recurring cash flow business model.

Do you know more about this story? Contact us anonymously



- Taken from: http://sbr.com.sg/energy-offshore/more-news/why-you-should-be-investing-in-mermaid-maritime#sthash.vdRbYYuh.dpuf

Retail Market Monitor: Monday, July 25, 2016

as the month draws to an end, I think there should be some profits taking for this week. Shares like DBS, Comfort delgro and citydev can be considered when the price falls to a lower level.

personally, i think 1MDB investigations will not have a great impact on DBS share prices.

Fed officials gain confidence they can raise rates this year and US economy has proven to be quite robust with the recent results.

For non-financial news, ASEAN deadlocked on South China Sea and Cambodia blocks statement. China's closest ASEAN ally Cambodia opposed the proposed wording, throwing the group into disarray. Phnom Penh supports Beijing's opposition to any ASEAN stand on the South China Sea, and its preference for dealing with the disputed claims on a bilateral basis.




*Kindly note the change of company name and rating to CapitaLand Mall Trust , HOLD.



Click on the link for details.

https://research.uobkayhian.com/content_download.jsp?id=35141&h=fca770bbc016b9f553eddcbad569617d



This transmission has been issued by a member of the UOB Kay Hian Group for the information of the addressee only and should not be reproduced and/or distributed to any other person. Each page attached hereto must be read in conjunction with any disclaimer which forms part of it. Unless otherwise stated, this transmission is neither an offer nor the solicitation of an offer to sell or purchase any investment. Its comments are based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable but UOB Kay Hian Group makes no representations and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its completeness or accuracy.


24 July 2016

What Are Shares?





I have been a professional stock trader for the past decade. I found the answer to this question by accident — and it changed my life.
In sixth grade we played a stock market game. We got $10,000 to allocate to any stocks whose prices were printed in the Wall Street Journal, and after three months the allocation that had produced the greatest profit would win the game. I wanted to win, so I asked the teacher why stock prices would rise. "Because people are buying them." And why do they buy them? "Because the prices might rise, and then they would profit." The vicious circle in this explanation models stock market participation as a zero-sum game. That is to say, any profit I make comes straight out of somebody else's pocket. Legalized gambling.
Of course, I didn't buy that this was all there was to tell of the story. If most all the big companies in the world were on board, as well as all the pension funds and insurance companies, I knew there had to be something more. So every time I met someone who seemed to be smart and knew something about business, I would ask this question. I don't know if they simply didn't have a good grasp of the truth or if they were just trying to dumb down the answer for a teenager, but every MBA I spoke with gave me this same zero-sum-game tale. I started to think that business was for people who were singularly not-smart.
During my final semester as an undergrad I was a regular at a bar on campus. I was there every Monday evening after a late class, doing a bit of drinking and a bit of reading. An economics professor sat next to me at the bar, also winding down from the day. He was a fascinating fellow, and we discussed everything from philosophy and religion to travel and wine to family and careers. After building up sufficient respect for the man, I began to have a thought. If anyone can explain it to me, I thought, this guy can.
With great trepidation I asked the familiar question: "Why would someone buy a stock?"
But the familiar answer didn't come back.
"That's not the right question, John. The right question is, why would someone offer a stock to sell on the stock market in the first place."
Oh. This time really was different.
"Both of us are at this bar every week. We like it. It improves our lives. And we pay money to the bar that, if the bar's business works well, creates profit for the owner."
That sounds right. In fact, it makes profit sound like a great thing for society, at least in some circumstances.
"But when it comes to starting a business, it takes money to make money. The owner had to commit to a lease on this building, bought glassware and alcohol, installed stools and this lovely wooden bar in front of us, and hired employees. Most people with a passion to start a small business aren't sitting on cold, hard cash. They have to get it from somewhere."
This is making sense, but where does the stock market come in?
"I happen to know the owner here, and he went with a combination of two options. One, he got a loan from the bank. But he didn't want to be on the hook for too much if the bar failed, and besides, the bank wouldn't lend him much unless he had skin in the game. So he brought in an investor. The second partner put in some money, and the guy you and I know puts in the work."
There's that light bulb poking out.
"The two partners divide up both the assets and the cash flow proportionally to the amount of the bar that each of them owns. In other words, they split up the profits from the ordinary operations of the bar, as well as ownership of the furniture and liquor and so on in case they decide to sell any of it off, based on how much each partner owns. Similarly, if they sell the bar one day, after they pay off the bar's debts they will split up the proceeds."
Time to flip the switch.
"Owning stock is like being that partner. You have a claim to all of the profits and assets of the business after its debts and so forth are paid. The business can build its earning power, accumulate assets, and become an attractive candidate for bigger businesses to buy up, and in all of those cases your stock in the company can put profits in your pocket. People buy stock to participate in those profit opportunities, and the price increases as people think that the potential profits are worth more."
But the investor dealt directly with the guy who runs the company. On the stock market we don't buy shares straight from the company, do we?
"The company gets cash directly whenever it offers new stock. Investment banks help it place that new stock with investors. But the people who own stock may want to sell it, which is where the secondary market comes in. That's where Mom & Pop and mutual funds and so on all meet up to buy and sell the stock that has already been issued. It's just the same as if the investor in this bar sold his stake in the bar to somebody else."
Now we bring it home.
"You buy stock to get a claim on the business, and you sell when you are willing to give up that claim in exchange for cash. When people think think the stock will produce greater value than the cash they're sitting on, and they act on that conviction by buying up stock, the price of the stock rises. And vice-versa with selling."
---
At this point we can answer the question robustly:
Imagine the bar's investor put in $150k originally and got 50% of the bar. Say he owns it for ten years, and the business is really successful during that time. For one, he's pulling out profits, so he's probably already gotten more than his $150k back -- if he sells his part of the bar, anything he gets is pure profit. For another, the bar has probably built up some assets during that time. It might have bought the building it's in, and his part of the building may now be worth more than his original investment.
So not only has he been paid back through cash distributions, but his ownership stake has increased in hard value because of the equity they've got in the building. No matter where he sells it he profits, and in fact he may well sell it for more than he put in originally.
And there's no reason to think the next investor can't profit, too. If the bar just keeps pace the cash distributions will keep coming and the bar will eventually own the building outright. Or maybe they expand, add food service, or open a second location, and their profits increase. Everyone can keep seeing their money increase over and over, so long as the business keeps succeeding.
It's the same with the stock market. So long as the businesses keep succeeding, stocks can keep increasing in value without anybody losing that money. The profits in your pocket come ultimately not from the losses of other market participants but from the value created by the companies. Yes, other market participants may not make as much profit as they otherwise might — that’s where your profit comes in — but that’s a loss of opportunity, not a loss of cash. Companies get capital (cash) to fund their business plans. Investors get to participate in their business success. It really can be a win-win.


Taken from : https://www.quora.com/When-someone-makes-money-on-the-stock-market-must-someone-else-be-losing-money/answer/John-Roberson

21 July 2016

Misc: Looking for Business Sellers

if you got any contacts in the business of,

  • security
  • pest control
  • cleaning business
  • steel works or
  • accounting business for sales
  • hotel, service apartments to buy & operate, in ASEAN countries except Malaysia

I got few buyers who are keen to acquire these kinds of separate type of business.

Please contact me to discuss terms and referral details.

19 July 2016

Stock Tip: Resources Prima (5MM)




  1. Thermal coal prices in Asia may jump as much as 50 percent if rainfall caused by La Nina is heavier than expected, further tightening the market as China cuts production, according to Citigroup Inc.
  2. Resources Prima achieves major milestone with the award of second “borrow-use” permit as announced on SGX on 14th July. This will greatly improves production and cash flow.
  3. Price has retracted from a high of S$0.060 to the current level S$0.048.
  4. Exponential Moving Average of 25, 50 and 100 days have all intersected and trending upwards. This is an indication of a changing of trending, moving up from here on.
  5. MACD indicated an upward trend too, with some minor retracements.


My suggestion to buy some of Resources Prima (5MM) and hold for profits. It is possible to contra too, that is if STI is green and the trading volume of Resources Prima (5MM) is over 10m exchanged hands.

18 July 2016

My Take On CNMC

Qns:

What's your take on CNMC? Actually bought them quite some time ago at 30+cents. Was thinking of taking profit around 55 cents. Do you think it will rebound back in the short-term? Or will more people dump the shares to decrease the price further so I should just take the profit now? After all, the price shoot-up quite dramatically in a short span of time.


Ans:


CNMC recent bull rally is largely due to gold prices, and this has always been the case. Fundamental wise I do not see any growth factor or any awesome developments in months to come.

As such, it is necessary to understand Gold's movements. Gold is a hedge against inflation, uncertainties and other FX currency pairings such as weakening of USD and etc.

With that in mind, Brexit has caused much panic and uncertainties, thus gold's rally.

If Fed is true to their words, and to hike rates in time to come, USD may strengthen (which i believe so), then gold should retrace back to the previous level. Gold and USD are inversely related.

Since you mentioned that you have profits already, i would take it first. Of course, there is an uncomfortable feeling of what if it were to go any higher. Based on my experience, the only thing certain is now. Anything else in the future is a gamble, as much as it is backed by fundamentals.

Shares do not help you in making money. It is the movement of share prices.

14 July 2016

SGX Down - No Trading Now

SGX servers are down, as such no trading currently.

we are waiting for further news. :(

12 July 2016

Congrats to clients who won from Mermaid Maritime !




Mermaid Maritime is having a triple bottom chart. Thus I gave a buy call on Mermaid Maritime this morning.

True enough, it hit a high of 0.118 at 2pm. This morning it opened at 0.109. That is a nice 9 pips of profits.

While this is not over, I'm just writing this down for documentation and reference. I believe it should hit 0.125 eventually over the next 3 days.

truly rewarding, the ultimate financial freedom.

Congrats to all my clients, hope you made money from my call too. :D

Mermaid Maritime (DU4)




As spoken to my clients previously, those bought around the range of 0.110 and below should have some profits now.


  1. the 35, 50 and 100 days moving average is closing the gap.
  2. Likewise the MACD is curving upwards too.
I strongly believe this should move to 0.125 eventually.

not to mention fundamentally, this company has no debts. and there is a possibility to be privatised.




11 July 2016

Back in office

back in office today. Sent out emails and watching and getting in tune with the market again.

Watch for Mermaid, OKH and Resource Prima.

Will update again soon. Thank you for supporting SGSAS. For first hand info, please contact me.
//amazon