26 January 2017

Singapore’s economy expanded 1.8 percent in 2016

Singapore’s economy expanded by a better-than-expected 1.8 percent in 2016, helped by a last-minute spurt after months of slump, according to official flash data released Tuesday.
The full-year growth in gross domestic product exceeded the government’s forecast of between 1 and 1.5 percent, but is slightly lower than the 2 percent annual growth in 2015.

The data announced by the Ministry of Trade and Industry is based on advance estimates.
The Singapore economy, one of the most trade dependent in the world, had been in a cyclical downturn in the past year due to weakness in its export markets. Growth came in largely flat in the second quarter of 2016 before deteriorating in the third quarter.

The Singapore economy grew by 1.8 percent on a year-on-year basis in the fourth quarter of 2016, faster than the 1.2 percent growth in the previous quarter.

On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally-adjusted annualized basis, the economy expanded by 9.1 percent in the fourth quarter, a reversal from the 1.9 percent contraction in the preceding quarter on the same basis.

Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said in his annual New Year’s message last Saturday that “we are not doing badly, considering the global economic uncertainties.”



via Mainichi

24 January 2017

Investment Talk at SAFRA Toa Payoh, 25th Feb 2017 (Tentatively)



To register for the event please use this link:


https://plus.google.com/events/c15dgvd1oq10ihbeqsj0htpj0ss?ghf=3049771&authkey=CLTd_7nzjODcbg

More details will be announced at a later time. Thank you all for your feedback. 




Morning all,


compiled some straits time article full access links for your perusal.

The first 100 days of Trump administration will be both interesting and important to note. SG banks are quite flat, but personally, i find it's still on the high side now. Still waiting for a better price.

I am invited by SAFRA to give a talk on investments at SAFRA Toa Payoh. Tentatively, it is on 25th Feb morning. The event is to educate and share trading ideas, both technical and fundamental with a wide range of audience. I will also share some insights as a frontline broker the things and behaviours that interest us, and how this information help in our trades and investments.

Admission is free but if you are keen, drop me a mail. I will secure a place for you if required. More details will be shared at a later time. Please note that this is on my personal time and effort, and it is not related to any company.

  

  

A few investing articles:
- ST 22/1/2017 - Invest Like A Pro: Get Rid of Your Biases
- NYT 30/12/2016 - 3 Approaches To Investing
- ST 22/1/2017 - Trumponomics & Markets
- ST 22/1/2017 - Year Of The Fire Rooster


  
  

1. Even the experts get it wrong.  In his article "Invest Like A Pro: Get Rid Of Your Biases", Straits Times senior correspondent Goh Eng Yeow shares the main mistakes of professional investors, and how we can avoid them

2. Year 2016 confounded predictions and expectations.  New York Times columnist Paul Sullivan shares with us his 3 C's to investing

3. DBS Chief Investment Officer Lim Say Boon shares his views of Trump and the economy. He also shares his opinions on US equities, other equities, bonds and the US dollar

4. What does the year of the Fire Rooster have in store for us? Straits Times Invest Editor Lorna Tan shares her views on the pros and cons of investing in equities, bonds and the US dollar



Click the buttons below to access the full articles:



  

  

ST 22/1/2017: Invest Like A Pro: Get Rid Of Your Biases 



  

  

NYT 30/12/2016: 3 Approaches to Investing 



  

  

ST 22/1/2017: Trumponomics & Markets 



  

  

ST 22/1/2017: The Heat Is On In The Year Of The Fire Rooster 



23 January 2017

Trump's inauguration on 20th Jan 2017

Morning all,


Please note that I will be away for Reservist Training from 11 to 21
Jan 2017.

Sharing an article as below. If 'buy the election and sell the inauguration' is true, then it will be a good time to cherry pick some preferred shares along the way when the prices are coming down.

Trump's inauguration will be on 20th Jan 2017.


Personal preference:

  • Blue chips for investing:                         DBS, Raffles Medical, Comfort Delgro.
  • Small-Mid cap counters:         Parkson Retail ( NAV $0.200+ conservatively), Noble (expected positive news by end of month), ISDN (for short term
    trading; dual listing on HKSE and SGX)
  • US shares: to focus on US financial shares, preferably JP Morgan.







Morgan Stanley: Buy the election, sell the inauguration

U.S. stocks have rallied since the election, but it's time for investors to start thinking about getting out, possibly timed for President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration, Morgan Stanley said.

"We are worried that there is arrogance in telling people that they should be worried, but to stay bullish for now," Morgan Stanley said in a note dated Tuesday.

"Part of us thinks we should just sell the inauguration. After all, what incrementally positive and exciting outcomes could be produced in the first few weeks after that?"

The U.S. banking giant's research arm noted that it had remained optimistic on U.S. equities for several years, even as it expected low earnings growth and some valuation multiple expansion. But now, it expects "material" earnings growth and multiple
contractions.

The rally since Trump's surprise win has been sizeable. The Dow Jones industrial average has gained
around 9 percent, to a hair's breadth from the 20,000 mark. The S&P 500 is up around 6 percent, tapping record highs.

"To us, it is WHEN, not IF we should fade this recent reflation trade," it said.

Morgan Stanley set its base-case target for the S&P 500 at 2300 at end-2017, marking 16.2 times its 2018 earnings forecast, compared with Tuesday's close at 2257.83.

The bank said pointed to a lack of policy visibility ahead for its middling view.

"We can't help but think that the Republican sweep has created a more uncertain and volatile outlook for the economy and corporate earnings growth," it said, citing risks from a more hawkish Federal Reserve, China's economic slowdown, a much stronger dollar and European political uncertainty.

Analysts have broadly cited an unprecedented level of policy uncertainty heading into a Trump administration, not simply on what campaign promises would actually be pursued and which will prove to be merely aggressive rhetoric, but also what could pass through Congress.


Trump's rhetoric on the campaign trail included promises of tax cuts for individuals and companies as well as substantial infrastructure projects, which appeared set to boost the government's deficit spending.

Morgan Stanley said there was clearly a lot of earnings uncertainty ahead, but it still
forecasts that the S&P 500 earnings would be about 18 percent higher in 2018 than in 2016.

But it noted that the biggest driver of that increase – more than 50 percent of it -- would come from Trump's promised corporate tax cut to 20 percent from 35 percent. Another 30 percent of the earnings rise over the next two years would likely come from fiscal stimulus and nearly 27 percent from acceleration in share buybacks, it added.

The figures add up to more than 100 percent as other factors, such as a stronger dollar and higher interest-rate costs, will hurt earnings.

"Any tax-related gridlock will be bad for markets," it said in the note.

Additionally, Morgan Stanley noted a risk that companies could "compete away" any tax benefits by passing the benefits to consumers, such as by lowering prices, rather than to shareholders.

Based on its expectation that the time to fade the U.S. stock rally was nearing, Morgan Stanley changed its sector recommendations for its portfolio.


Industrials were cut by Morgan Stanley to equal-weight from overweight, saying that after a rally fueled by "rebuild America" dreams, it was time to take profit.


However, energy was upgraded energy to overweight from equal-weight, citing a continued recovery in exploration and production activity and oil services demand. The technology was also upgraded to equal-weight from underweight, noting it took a 3 percent position in Activision Blizzard on its high-quality gaming assets.

But it further lowered its exposure to consumer discretionary plays, cutting its position on Starbucks as it faced growing competition and on Rubbermaid-maker Newell Brands. The bank said it expected consumer discretionary sector multiples would contract more than the broader market as interest rates rise.

It stayed equal-weight on the financial sector, but added a 2 percent position in Wells Fargo and removed 1 percent positions in Capital One Financial and BlackRock.

—By CNBC.Com's Leslie Shaffer; Follow her on Twitter @LeslieShaffer1

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/03/morgan-stanley-buy-the-election-sell-the-inauguration.html


04 January 2017

Congrats to all my clients who WON on Mermaid Maritime!

Click on the chart to enlarge


Very nice set up from Oct 2016!

Sold half of my holdings, held at 0.100 psychological price previously.

Currently busy with rearranging portfolios for my clients, will elaborate another day.


For fundamental details please refer to http://sgstocksandshares.blogspot.sg/2016/07/5-reasons-to-buy-mermaid-maritime.html
//amazon