31 March 2017

Chapter 0: Genesis

It's about time I write a proper introduction for SGstocksandshares (SGSAS) and answer the questions that I received over the years.

The page About Me is a proper corporate resume, and a summary of me, myself and I. An introduction, however, should not be the background of the author solely, but the actual reason and motivations behind the inception too.

To start off, the birth of SGSAS started for 2 reasons mainly; Convenience and Sharing.

Convenience

Most of the writings, if you have noticed, are forwarded from my emails which I send to my clients. And when I needed to refer back to my own information, a personal website as such helps to serve this need.

The strength of a broker is not the number of right trading calls, but to educate clients to help them better themselves. And together with clients, a broker share and receive information helping everyone to profit from the market. The traditional emailing system is too slow and passive, yet on the other end, communicating through Whatsapp will be extremely unorganised and not practical.

A website or a blog namely SGSAS will be a great platform for organising information for easy access and to share with a greater audience. On top of that, it makes it much easier to network with like-minded people with the similar interests who are keen too.

You may ask, why not Facebook, ShareJunction or InvestingNote?

Well, these are not spaces belonging to me. In fact, I will be quite constrained to what and how I can post, linking to Twitter, my FX account and all. Rather than login, load and search, anytime, anywhere when I need to refer to any information, I will simply load up my site.

Sharing

Subsequently, through SGSAS, I have met acquaintances who share market insights and information. Though Mosiac Theory, such piece and fragments of information help to paint a bigger picture. No doubt it is necessary to filter noises and news, but there are times brokers and traders should rise above that. That is to understand that a certain noise has plagued and distorted the current market, resulting the market to react in such manner. The point to deliver here is, to trade the market effectively, it is paramount to be in sync and connected to the market. To be aware of every news and noise, that is currently in the market will give an impeccable and timely execution of trades.

While the broker helps to look out for trading calls, individual research results will be quite limited due to energy and resources. Things can be better if broker and clients are working together for a common cause.

As elaborated above, it does not matter if clients or broker have the absolute right call. In addition to this matter, there are times we could be blindsided by certain facts and information. So sharing helps to test information and check concepts.

Why give free seminars?

After the establishment of this website, I gave simple seminars for free, sharing and teaching how to read charts and such. NTU Top Trading Competition, SAFRA Financial Literacy Workshop and the upcoming Singapore Finance Conference 2017 are some examples. This is a service I believe in giving back to the society. It reminded me when I first started trading, how I was trying to learn and understand all the available information. Now that I have learnt much, it is time for me to give back.

The enterprising ones will see the act of giving seminars for free as a stepping stone to evolve into a paid seminar in time to come. They further explained that the seminars are currently free as it will conflict with my job nature.

The act of giving is an altruistic act, showing a disinterested and selfless concern for the well-being of others. Since I am not making a business out of educating traders and investors, I do not see the need to charge.

Trading and investing in markets is my actual business and that is how I make money from the market. I seek to be connected to the market, and in order to do so, it is necessary to reach out. Seminars are the best way to achieve this.


My costs

Ironically, it dawned upon me that the selfless act of giving requires costs to do so.

Case in point, the organisers and I split the bill of hiring a graphic designer to do up the Electronic Direct Mailers, a requirement for SAFRA Financial Literacy Workshops. Imagine my initial reaction when one actually has to pay to give for free. Such irony.

Which brings me to the next point: my job as a non-commission stockbroker. But I will leave it to the next article to write on the next time.

Usage

SGSAS is open to everyone and anyone. Yet, there will always be a distinct difference between free and premium. My clients expect me to render a service, and that is something I have to fulfil with priority. After all, there is no free lunch in this world.

Still, for a passionate investor, SGSAS will help to summarise and have a brief daily outlook of the markets. It should serve the basic needs of an investor.

29 March 2017

House of Commons UK PM Theresa May Speaks - Live Video NOW



UK’s PM Theresa May is expected to make a statement to MPs later at 1130GMT and finally trigger Brexit Article 50. According to previous consensus, the statement should lean to the conciliatory tone, calling all Britons to unite ahead of this historical moment.

“When we leave the European Union we will have control of our budgets and we will decide how we spend our money”
“Invoking Article 50, we are putting into practice the democratic vote of the UK people”, says May, while suggesting that the Scottish government should “do the same with the 2015 referendum on the independence of Scotland”


taken from : https://www.fxstreet.com/news/house-of-commons-uk-pm-theresa-may-speaks-live-video-201703291139 

22 March 2017

SIA



Good morning,

SIA (SIA SP) had underperformed the STI over the past three months but we expect the stock to at least market-perform in the near term. Our reasons are as follows:


  • Relatively low valuations, which limit downside risk. SIA is currently trading at 0.69x FY18F book value ex-SIAEC, -1SD below long-term mean.

  • SIA is a potential beneficiary of diversionary traffic from China to Singapore, as the group has a 52% share out of Changi. According to Bloomberg, China has asked tour agencies to limit travel to South Korea, in an apparent retaliation against the South Korea’s deployment of Thaad missiles.

  • SIA could also benefit from a potential cargo recovery. IATA notes that global PMI new orders have been trending up and this bodes well for air cargo. Global cargo traffic rose 6.9% in January, with Asia Pacific airlines contributing to the bulk of the growth.

  • We believe that SIA is a better beneficiary of any cargo recovery, given its lower capital cost and fuel hedges. SIA will have greater leverage from improving cargo traffic and loads compared with Cathay Pacific (CX, 293 HK) as SIA had written down the value of its freighters and would thus have minimal capital costs. SIA also has fuel hedges at lower levels, vs CX's hedges (US$75-90/bbl).


For now we maintain our HOLD recommendation, but downside risk is relatively low at current levels. Newsflow will likely be positive and we expect share price to gradually head towards our target price of S$10.40. Suggested entry: S$9.90.

20 March 2017

M1's Trading Halt

sharing for convenience.


(Bloomberg) -- M1 Ltd.’s owners are exploring options including a sale of Singapore’s smallest mobile operator as the city-state gears up for a new entrant into the wireless market, according to people with knowledge of the matter. Keppel Corp., Axiata Group Bhd. and Singapore PressHoldings Ltd. are working with an adviser to conduct a strategic review of their combined 61 percent interest in M1, the people said, asking not to be identified because the discussions are confidential. The carrier, which offers fixed-line and mobile services to more than 2 million customers, has a $1.3 billion market value. The potential sale of Singapore’s third-largest carrier comes as the city-state prepares for the roll-out of a fourth mobile operator with TPG Telecom Ltd. slated to begin wireless services in 2018. The regulator has said it wants to introduce more competition in the city-state to bring down phone bills and improve services. Temasek Holdings Pte has studied ways for Keppel, a portfolio company, to divest non-core assets including its stake in M1, as part of a regular review of investments, people familiar with the matter said in January last year. Executives at the state investment company had also discussed the possibility of Keppel paring its stake in office landlord KeppelREIT. Malaysian wireless carrier Axiata has a 29 percent stake inM1, while Keppel has a 19 percent holding and Singapore Press owns 13 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. A representative for Axiata didn’t immediately respond to emails seeking comment. Representatives for M1, Keppel and SingaporePress didn’t immediately respond to Bloomberg queries. Plans to sell Singaporean telecom stakes have made little progress. Shareholders in the second-largest operator StarhubLtd. were weighing a sale in July, with Qatar’s Ooredoo QSCseeking to sell its indirect stake in the carrier, people familiar with the matter said at the time. The city state’s current telecom operators includingSingapore Telecommunications Ltd. and StarHub are likely to see average revenue per user decline by as much as 16 percent in the next five years, according to OCBC. TPG Telecom may gain the mobile revenue market share of about 6 percent by 2021, the research firm said Friday. 

M1 is now trading at 7.3x EV/Trailing EBITDA, compared to Starhub at 8.15x and Singtel at 15.4x.

08 March 2017

SGX proposes bringing back lunch breaks for traders

SINGAPORE: Singapore Exchange (SGX) launched a public consultation on Wednesday (Mar 8) on bringing back a lunch break for traders and increasing the minimum bid sizes for some stocks.
The proposed lunch break will take place from 12pm to 1pm. SGX in 2011 scrapped the mid-day break – which was then from 12.30pm to 2pm – saying it could boost trading by as much as 10 per cent.
“Market feedback indicates that while the benefits of continuous all-day trading remain relevant, market participants prefer shorter trading hours,” SGX said in a news release.
“The timing of the proposed mid-day break allows us to retain significant overlap in trading hours with key markets in Asia, which was one of the key intended benefits of continuous all-day trading, and coincides with the generally lower trading activity of the day,” it added.
During the break, market participants can continue to enter and manage their orders. SGX will publish an indicative equilibrium price based on the orders received in the order book to facilitate price discovery and enable investors to better manage their risks, it said.
The exchange operator has also proposed to increase the minimum bid size for stocks and relevant securities trading in the S$1 to S$1.99 price range from the current S$0.005 to S$0.01.
The proposed change is based on a decline in traded value and lower retail participation in the S$1 to S$1.99 price range, SGX said.
“A wider minimum bid size could generate more viable trading opportunities taking into consideration total transaction costs for some segments of the market, such as retail traders. This in turn may promote a more balanced mix of participants for securities in this price range,” it said.
SGX also said it wants to widen the forced order range for stocks and relevant securities from the current +/- 20 bids to +/- 30 bids, in response to market feedback to improve order entry efficiency.
“SGX constantly reviews its market structures, rules and policies, taking into account changing market conditions, regular dialogue with the industry, and supportive data analysis,” said CEO Loh Boon Chye.
The public consultation is open until Mar 29, and feedback can be sent to rules@sgx.com.

03 March 2017

SGSAS query: Noble Accumulation? Or?

Question:

hi,

do u have an opinion on noble group? looks like accumulation at the 20c - 22c range.





Ans:

morning,


Personally my last batch i got it at 0.176 and sold 225. unless it goes below 0.200, i will not touch it now.

depends if you are a trader or investor. If you are investing, then u need to watch if Sinochem will be proceeding with the investing in noble.

my 2 cents



Click to enlarge:

02 March 2017

Lee Metal at least 6% dividends since 2009!!

been looking ard for something other than Banking shares. In fact, bank shares are a little too high for now. Lee Metal issues about 6% dividends or more constantly. Certainly better than some blue-chip shares. Noticed this as the volume has been increasing and chart wise it has been moving out of the down channel for a while.

I compiled some info for referencing. Available for CPF investing too.




Profitable since 2005 (that’s as far as I can go from the 2009 annual report)
Despite being in a cyclical industry, Lee Metal has been profitable since 2005, even in 2008/2009.


S$m
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Sales
690.3
1,112.5
1,537.7
1,471.4
983.9
831.5
773.6
696.2
635.9
519.3
445.4
318.6
Net profit
7.1
10.3
15.5
20.4
29.9
22.5
18.9
26.9
40.2
33.1
15.6
13.3
EPS
0.020
0.025
0.035
0.040
0.058
0.048
0.040
0.057
0.085
0.070
0.033
0.028
DPS
0.002
0.018
0.012
0.013
0.030
0.025
0.020
0.025
0.035
0.030
0.020
0.020
payout
10.2%
71.1%
34.0%
32.6%
51.7%
52.1%
50.1%
44.1%
41.4%
43.0%
61.0%
71.2%



STRONG free cash flow generation yield of more than 20%!! In the last 3 years
While profit has declined with the tough environment, FCF yield has remained at least 9% in the last 5 years. For FY16, generated 20% free cash flow yield!!!

2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
OCF          63.5          23.7          43.6          74.1          31.1
Capex        (13.0)        (10.7)          (5.5)        (19.9)          (2.8)
FCF          50.5          13.0          38.1          54.3          28.3
PBT          32.0          47.9          37.6          18.4          14.8
Dep            4.9            7.0          10.1          11.8          10.7
FCF yield
36.1%
9.3%
27.2%
38.8%
20.2%
FCF/share        0.106        0.027        0.080        0.114        0.060



With its strong cash flow generation- has moved from net debt of S$80m in 2013 to net cash of S$8.5m in just 3 years, and that is while paying S$0.085 of dividends in total from 2013-2015!

2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
cash
25.2
50.0
46.1
68.7
69.1
fixed deposit
48.7
65.2
42.9
27.8
28.8
debt
(139.2)
(195.8)
(142.5)
(105.3)
(89.3)
net cash
(65.2)
(80.7)
(53.5)
(8.9)
8.5



Good pay master
Has been constantly paying out dividends. While DPS was cut in 2015, it still translates to 6.8% yield.


2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
DPS
0.0250
0.0350
0.0300
0.0200
0.0200
EPS
0.0567
0.0846
0.0698
0.0328
0.0281
payout
44.1%
41.4%
43.0%
61.0%
71.2%
FCF yield
36.1%
9.3%
27.2%
38.8%
20.2%
FCF/share
0.106
0.027
0.080
0.114
0.060
dividend yield
8.5%
11.9%
10.2%
6.8%
6.8%



Improving outlook?- is the worst over? , coming off a low base?

We note that profit has dropped from S$40m in 2013 to S$13.3m in 2016. (although we note that part of it is due to higher depreciation expense (non-cash)) . 2017 construction demand is expected to be between $28b-35b , similar to 2016 of $27b-34b. + Steel prices have been on the rise…

Valuations: Currently trading at 10.5x PE, not cheap. But given the strong free cash flow generation and good dividend yield and excellent track record of earnings. Believe it is worth a look (esp with the volume in the chart see next few pages)




Daily chart- interesting surge in volume with prices remaining stable between S$0.29-0.295.



Weekly chart






Look at the long monthly tails in 2015- breakout to S$0.355









Dividend Payouts over the last 10 years

Dividend Yield(TTM) = 6.90%


Year Yield Amount Ex Date Pay Date Particulars
2017 3.45% SGD 0.01 2017-04-26 2017-05-22 SGD 0.01 ONE-TIER TAX
2016 6.90% SGD 0.003 2016-11-21 2016-12-09 SGD 0.003 ONE-TIER TAX
SGD 0.005 2016-08-31 2016-09-15 SGD 0.005 ONE-TIER TAX
SGD 0.002 2016-06-08 2016-06-24 SGD 0.002 ONE-TIER TAX
SGD 0.01 2016-04-27 2016-05-23 SGD 0.01 ONE-TIER TAX
2015 6.90% SGD 0.003 2015-11-23 2015-12-11 SGD 0.003 ONE-TIER TAX
SGD 0.005 2015-09-01 2015-09-16 SGD 0.005 ONE-TIER TAX
SGD 0.002 2015-06-08 2015-06-24 SGD 0.002 ONE-TIER TAX
SGD 0.01 2015-04-28 2015-05-22 SGD 0.01 ONE-TIER TAX
2014 12.07% SGD 0.003 2014-11-24 2014-12-12 SGD 0.003 ONE-TIER TAX
SGD 0.005 2014-09-01 2014-09-16 SGD 0.005 ONE-TIER TAX
SGD 0.002 2014-06-06 2014-06-24 SGD 0.002 ONE-TIER TAX
SGD 0.01 2014-04-28 2014-05-23 SGD 0.01 ONE-TIER TAX
SGD 0.015 2014-04-28 2014-05-23 SGD 0.015 ONE-TIER TAX
2013 8.62% SGD 0.003 2013-11-25 2013-12-13 SGD 0.003 ONE-TIER TAX
SGD 0.005 2013-08-30 2013-09-16 SGD 0.005 ONE-TIER TAX
SGD 0.002 2013-06-06 2013-06-24 SGD 0.002 ONE-TIER TAX
SGD 0.005 2013-04-30 2013-05-23 SGD 0.005 ONE-TIER TAX
SGD 0.01 2013-04-30 2013-05-23 SGD 0.01 ONE-TIER TAX
2012 6.90% SGD 0.003 2012-11-23 2012-12-14 SGD 0.003 ONE-TIER TAX
SGD 0.005 2012-08-29 2012-09-14 SGD 0.005 ONE-TIER TAX
SGD 0.002 2012-06-05 2012-06-22 SGD 0.002 ONE-TIER TAX
SGD 0.01 2012-05-03 2012-05-25 SGD 0.01 ONE-TIER TAX
2011 8.62% SGD 0.003 2011-11-29 2011-12-16 SGD 0.003 ONE-TIER TAX
SGD 0.005 2011-08-29 2011-09-16 SGD 0.005 ONE-TIER TAX
SGD 0.002 2011-06-07 2011-06-24 SGD 0.002 ONE-TIER TAX
SGD 0.01 2011-05-03 2011-05-27 SGD 0.01 ONE-TIER TAX
SGD 0.005 2011-05-03 2011-05-27 SGD 0.005 ONE-TIER TAX
2010 6.90% SGD 0.003 2010-11-29 2010-12-17 THIRD SGD 0.003 ONE-TIER TAX
SGD 0.005 2010-08-30 2010-09-17 SGD 0.005 ONE-TIER TAX
SGD 0.002 2010-06-14 2010-06-25 FIRST INTERIM SGD 0.002 ONE-TIER TAX
SGD 0.01 2010-05-03 2010-05-27 SGD 0.01 ONE-TIER TAX
2009 6.90% SGD 0.003 2009-11-26 2009-12-18 THIRD INTERIM SGD 0.003 ONE-TIER TAX
SGD 0.005 2009-08-21 2009-09-11 SGD 0.005 ONE-TIER TAX
SGD 0.002 2009-06-08 2009-06-25 SGD 0.002 ONE-TIER TAX
SGD 0.01 2009-04-30 2009-05-28 SGD 0.01 ONE-TIER TAX
2008 4.48% SGD 0.003 2008-08-21 2008-09-12 SGD 0.003 ONE-TIER TAX
- 2008-08-11 - 1 WT FOR 5 SH OFFER OF 1 FOR 5 @ SGD 0.05
SGD 0.01 2008-04-25 2008-05-15 SGD 0.01 ONE-TIER TAX
2007 3.45% SGD 0.002 2007-08-20 2007-09-05 (LST INTERIM) SGD 0.002 LESS TAX
SGD 0.008 2007-04-27 2007-05-16 SGD 0.008 LESS TAX









//amazon