28 November 2017

BUY PARKSON RETAIL (O9E) FOR 40% UPSIDE

update:

JOHOR BARU: The largest mall in Malaysia's Johor state opened its doors on Tuesday (Nov 28). 
Located along the Skudai Highway, Paradigm Mall JB spans more than 2 million sq ft and is just a 20-minute ride from the Woodlands Causeway.  

(Source: Paradigm Mall JB) 

The mall is bigger than Singapore's largest shopping centre VivoCity, which has a gross floor area of 1.5 million sq ft. 
Paradigm Mall JB will feature the largest movie theatre in the state operated by Golden Screen Cinemas, premium supermarket Village Grocer as well as department store operator Parkson.
Parkson will be the mall's anchor tenant, taking up 200,000 sq ft of space. The outlet is Parkson's first regional store in the southern part of Peninsular Malaysia. 
For adrenaline junkies, the mall showcases a 20,000 sq ft ice skating rink, a Camp5 indoor climbing gym and Malaysia's first indoor skate park.

With more than 500 retail lots spread over six floors, some well-known names among the tenants include H&M, Uniqlo, Harvey Norman, Wendy's, Marrybrown and Under Armour. 
Apart from the retail and mall space, the complex also features a 24-storey serviced apartments tower and a 296-room four-star hotel. 
Paradigm Mall, which has another shopping complex in Petaling Jaya near Kuala Lumpur, is owned and developed by WCT Holdings. 

Read more at http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/lifestyle/johor-s-largest-shopping-centre-paradigm-malljb-opens-9446578






The last report on Nov indicated that Parkson retail has S$12m losses, majorly due to an increment of operational cost and gestation of new stores.

As a result, the shares have tanked from 0.125 to a low of 0.063.


Recent buying volume below 0.075



Note the stated reason is for the lack of revenue. It states that it is due to the absence of festival holidays of Hari Raya/LeBaran.

However, this also means that it will be starting in June 2018.


Eid al-Fitr 2018 will begin on the evening of

Thursday
14 June
and ends on the evening of

Friday
15 June

This means that there will be likely no negative results that will be released from now until June.

Next, Tan Sri Cheng Heng Jem holds, directly and indirectly, 53.52% of the voting shares in PHB, which is the sole shareholder of East Crest International Limited. East Crest International, in turn, owns almost 70% of Parkson. There is no insider selling, and I assume the Parent would want money to flow back upwards, hence I believe the "will" to distribute dividends will be there.


They are paying themselves peanuts. I like in terms of presence in popular malls, parkson has done a good job too. Look at the three links

1) http://www.kuala-lumpur.ws/klshopping/top-10-shopping.htm

2) http://www.wonderfulmalaysia.com/faq/top10-shopping-malls-in-kuala-lumpur.htm

3) http://web.parkson.com.my/whatson/store-locator/

In either survey, Parkson is the anchor tenant in 4- 5 of the most popular malls.

Also, if u take a look at Aeon, a competitor in the department store space. U compare Apple to Apple, by taking only Aeon Retailing Segment and Parkson Malaysia Segment, Parkson again fare better.

Now looking at the charts, there are some buying volume from any prices below 0.070.

I strongly believe that it will retest the 0.100 price level first, and then 0.125 if there is strong volume.






This is backed by the latest EPS (Earnings Per Share) as well as NAV (Net Asset Value) of the shares.

In other words, given the current price 0.074, we are looking at an upside of 35% if it hits 0.100. Worth a try to do some bottom fishing here!

Good luck!



Summary:

Entry:  below 0.075
First Take Profits: 0.090 to 0.100
Second Take Profit: 0.115 to 0.121

Cut Loss: 0.065

21 November 2017

SELL CALL: Singapore Dividends to Drop: study




Taken from : http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/singapore-dividends-to-drop-study


SINGAPORE dividends are in for another tough year to the dismay of the legions of retiree investors; they also take some shine off the bull run in which the Straits Times Index has risen some 12 per cent since January.
Aggregate dividends (ordinary plus special) in 2017 will fall 3.6 per cent year on year (yoy) to S$16 billion from S$16.6 billion reported a year ago, said financial data provider IHS Markit.





This will be the second straight year that single-digit negative growth is reported.

Disappointing income huggers are dividend stalwarts such as StarHub, SPH and Keppel Corp. Picking up some of the slack with higher payout would be, among others, DBS and property stocks such as CapitaLand, CapitaLand Commercial Trust and Ascendas Real Estate Investment Trust.

Excluding special dividends, ordinary dividends from companies in FTSE STI and MSCI Singapore are projected to be down 2.5 per cent yoy to S$15.9 billion, compared to 0.6 per cent growth in 2016.

IHS Markit covers 31 stocks from FTSE STI and MSCI Singapore. Projected dividends selected for each year are based on the dividend announcement date, so 2017 total dividends for a stock may consist of FY16 final dividend and FY17 interim dividend.
Special dividends are forecast to be down about 56 per cent yoy to S$120.8 million as Singapore Technologies Engineering opts to stick to ordinary dividend payments. The company gradually reduced yearly paid special dividends to S$155.2 million (five cents per share) last year and plans to distribute specials only when there are one-off events in future.

This leaves the number of companies that pay special dividends to two - City Developments and SPH.

Not so long ago, seven companies paid out special dividends in 2012 and 2014. But the highest special payouts in the past six years was by five companies totalling over S$1 billion in 2013, which included a bumper S$401.1 million from SPH as it listed SPH Reit.

City Developments announced two special dividends in 2017 - four cents in February and four cents in August.
"We are expecting SPH to declare a flat amount of three cents in October," said Hyeyoung Jo, IHS Markit research & analysis manager, dividend forecasting.

She also expects the final dividend to fall to six cents from eight cents. SPH is scheduled to report full year results on Oct 11. SPH declared in April an interim dividend of six cents, down from seven cents a year ago.
IHS Markit is also projecting ordinary dividends from SPH to be down 20 per cent yoy from S$239.8 million to S$192 million, added Ms Jo.

"There is a further downside risk in upcoming dividends as receding media revenue growth continues to impact the group earnings. The company's cash flow and cash equivalents have been downwards, putting additional pressure on dividend growth," said Ms Jo.

Also slashing dividends is StarHub, causing the telco sector to post a cut in aggregate dividends for the first time in five years. This is due to a dividend policy revision, effective FY17. StarHub's net profit and free cash flow in recent years have been weighed down by intensified market competition and the company decided to downgrade its annual dividend per share by 20 per cent to 16 cents from 20 cents which it had maintained since FY10.

In 2017, StarHub's total dividends are forecast to be down 15.2 per cent at S$293.8 million and the sector's total dividends are expected to fall 0.5 per cent.

Banks and telcos continue to dominate 2017 ordinary dividends, respectively accounting for 26.9 per cent and 19.8 per cent of total dividends expected for the year. Banks' dividends are set to rise 3.5 per cent, against a drop of 4.1 per cent in 2016 (minus 12.3 per cent including specials), which was primarily impacted by United Overseas Bank's policy change to keep an equal split between interim and final dividends.

This year, UOB and OCBC have declared flat dividends from the previous year while DBS decided to pay out 10 per cent higher interim dividend. Since UOB omitted special dividends in 2016, aggregate dividends from DBS surpassed its two local peers and the bank alone takes up around 10 per cent of the total dividends expected from Singapore in 2017.

Dividends from two oil and gas companies, Keppel Corp and Sembcorp Industries, have been lacklustre and the sector is projected to report the biggest cut compared to other sectors in 2017. The sector has declared 32.4 per cent lower dividends in 2017 following a 37.5 per cent decrease in the previous year.

Besides DBS, other dividend stars come from real estate. The real estate sector is projected to deliver dividend growth of 8 per cent yoy.

Six out of the nine companies in the sector are forecast to maintain flattish dividend per share (DPS) in 2017 compared to the previous year while CapitaLand Commercial Trust (CCT), CapitaLand and Ascendas Real Estate (A-Reit) are projected to deliver higher DPS, said Ms Jo.

All three companies' revenues and net property income have benefited from recent acquisitions, she noted.
A-Reit leads the sector's dividend growth and is projected to deliver the highest growth of 30.8 per cent in DPS (or 40.9 per cent in aggregate dividend) after a drop of of 33.6 per cent (or minus 25.6 per cent in aggregate dividend) a year ago. This is mainly attributable to the full-year contribution from new acquisitions in Q3 FY16 and FY17, namely the Australian logistics properties and ONE@Changi City.

Both CCT and CapitaLand have already confirmed 6.3 per cent and 11.1 per cent higher DPS respectively, equivalent to 8.4 per cent and 10.9 per cent growth in aggregate dividends. The growth is partially due to higher recurring income from CapitaGreen acquired in 2016.

Despite some dividend cuts, investors are keeping their faith with Singapore stocks.
Said Carmen Lee, head of OCBC Investment Research: "Overall, based on current prices, dividend yield for the STI is projected at about 3.4 per cent for this year and 3.5 per cent for next year.

"The STI has done well for several reasons. The key outperformers for the year included several of the big cap companies, especially those in the financial and property sectors."

This is clearly seen from the gains for the finance and property indices, she said.
The finance, Reits and real estate indices are up as much as 18 per cent for the year compared to the STI's slower 12 per cent. The STI closed at 3,218.57 last Friday.

"The STI should continue to trade towards 3,400 by year-end," said DBS Group Research in its Q4 outlook.
The reflation trade is still alive in Singapore where a synchronised pick-up in global activity is still underway, it said. "We believe the banking and property sectors should still drive index performance."

OCBC's Ms Lee said: "The recent renewed interest in the local en bloc property market has sparked interest in property trading and transactions and has also benefited listed property companies' share prices. Based on the Real Estate index, and despite recent gains, the index is still trading currently at 0.9x book value, effectively implying a discount to book value."





13 November 2017

SG Counters

*DBS
CORPORATE RESULTS
property.
- Provisioning soared 87% to $815m (2Q17: $304m) on a spike in specific allowances to the O&G support service sector.
- NPL ratio ticked up to 1.7% (3Q16: 1.3%, 2Q17: 1.5%) but capital position remained strong with Tier 1 CAR at 14.0% (3Q16: 14.4%, 2Q17: 14.4%).
- Trading at 1.32x P/B.


*Venture
- Stellar 3Q17 net profit surged 135% to $111.4m (+135%), blowing past estimates.
- Higher revenue of $1.06b (50.5%) was due to strong execution of customers' programmes and deeper collaboration with strategic clients.
- Pretax margin expanded 4.4ppt to 12.4% as there were more products that required design content.
- Cash continued to pile up giving scope for higher dividends.
- Last traded at 20.8x FY17e P/E.


- Revenue grew 3.7% to $274.7m on
- 2QFY18 net profit to $38.1m (+7.3%) missed forecasts.
*SIA Engineering
increased contribution from airframe & component overhaul and line maintenance revenue.
- But operating margin of 7.1% (-2.2ppts) was squeezed by higher staff costs.
- Last traded at 21.9x FY18e P/E.


- 3Q17 net profit tumbled 90% to $10.7m on
*OUE
lower reversal of impairment losses for OUE Twin Peaks (-86.1%).
- This dragged 9M17 net profit to $33.2m (-76.6%), meeting just 41% of FY17 street estimate.
- Revenue slumped 56.6% to $181.9m on weaker development income (-86.9%) following completion of Crowne Plaza Changi Airport Extension and fewer unit sales at OUE Twin Peaks.
- Gross margin expanded to 38.6% (+5.6ppt) on a shift in sales mix.
- Bottom line was further weighed by increased net finance expenses (+19.8%) and a jump in non-controlling interests (+28.2%).
- NAV/share at $4.38.


*Chip Eng Seng
- 3Q17 net profit surged 145.8% to $14m, mainly boosted by a disposal gain from of 420 St Kilda Road in Melbourne, Australia, for $13.4m.
- Revenue jumped 37.8% to $209.2m on jump in contributions from property developments (+114.7%) and hospitality (+47.6%), but partly weighed by construction (-31.9%) and property investments (-7.7%).
- Gross margin dipped 1ppt to 16.8% on the shift in sales mix.
- Bottom line was partly weighed by increased administrative expenses (+36.1%) arising from pre-operating expenses for Grand Park Kodhipparu Maldives, depreciation charges and higher staff costs.
- Trades at 17.4x forward P/E.


- Declared interim DPS to 1¢ (3Q16:
- Bottom line was partly supported by lower interest costs (-25.8%) and distribution & selling (-7.1%) expenses, but pared by a swing into associate/ JV loss to $0.02m (3Q16: $0.6m profit).
- Gross margin slipped 1.1ppt to 55.2% on a change in sales mix.
- Revenue slipped 2% to $154.3m on weakness across bakery (-1.7%), food atrium (-4.5%), F&B incubator 4orth (-9.8%) and others (-2.5%), while restaurant takings improved 0.9%.
- 3Q17 results missed despite a 22.2% jump in net profit to $4m.
*Breadtalk
nil).
-
Currently
trades at 23.8x forward P/E.

- Gross margin expanded 3.6ppt to 7.4% on better margins from the processing segment and contribution from new
- For the quarter, revenue surged 157.7% to US$482.1m on improved rubber prices and higher sales volume from existing and newly-acquired operations, namely Sinochem and GMG Global.
- 3Q17 turned around to net profit of US$7.3m (3Q16 US$12.1m loss), bringing 9M17 net profit to US$20.1m (9M16: $26.7m loss).
*Halcyon Agri
acquisitions, but was partially offset by margin compression in the distribution segment.
- Bottom line was supported by
associate profit of $2.6m (3Q16: nil
).
- Last traded at 5.5x trailing P/E.


- 3Q17 reversed into
*Rowsley
net loss of $9.8m (3Q16: $5.4m profit) due to a $7.9m fair value loss stemming from an acquisition which saw its consideration upwardly revised, and absence of $7.2m revaluation gain from a subsidiary.
- Revenue rose 6% to $26.2m, mainly contributed by Squire Mech, an associate turned subsidiary in Aug '16, and new acquisitions AC Consortium, and Ariva Hospitality.
- Post-adjustment of one-off items, EBITDA margin shrank 4.3ppt to 5.1% upon consolidation of Squire Mech, lower wage reimbursement from customers and higher project expenses.
- Net gearing crept higher to 0.23x from 0.21x in Jun '17.
- NAV/share at $0.0846.


POSITIVE NEWS
*Metro Holdings
- Existing 90:10 JV with Lee Kim Tah Group has signed a master agreement with PT. Trans Corpora, to develop, market and sell five 32-storey residential towers in Bekasi, Jakarta, Indonesia.
- Total investment value will be at Rp1,987b ($200.4m).
- The residential towers are part of Trans Corpora's mixed development Trans Park Bekasi on a 4.5-ha site, which also comprises a hotel, school, office building and a Transmart mall.
- This allows Metro to expand beyond retail department store operations to include its core property business in Indonesia.


-
- The deal includes a net profit guarantee of RM4.5m for FY18.
- To acquire Eastern Press, a Malaysian printer and supplier of packaging materials, for RM46.3m.
*Top Glove
Acquisition will help improve its supply chain for better costs and quality control.

- Disposing entire 49% stake in Triumph Alliance to Prime Asia Corp for US$10m, which includes a repayment of
*Noble
NEGATIVE NEWS
loan owed to Noble.
- The consideration in markedly below the JV's book value of US$44m, and hence will lead to an impairment loss.


*Dukang Distillers
- Warned of significantly lower 1QFY18 revenue and earnings.
- The negative profit alert was due to an inventory build-up at the distributors following a previous sales promotion for baijiu products.


*Profit warnings
- Tat Hong
- A-Sonic


NEUTRAL NEWS
*Frasers Centrepoint
- Hospitality arm marked the opening of a 354-unit Modena By Fraser Changsha in Hunan, China.
- The serviced residence is one of 14 properties slated to open over the next four years.
- The group currently has a global portfolio of 148 properties with 23,600 units.


- Land site is a 462sqm freehold property that is zoned residential with commercial at
- Exercised an option to purchase a vacant land along Tessensohn Road in Singapore for $14.5m.
*Oxley
1st storey.
- Trading at 11.6x forward P/E.


- The price translates to ~$2,080
- To acquire another 3.33%/ 5.49% in Perennial Chinatown Point for $5.1m/ $8.5m.
*SPH/ Perennial
psf NLA.
- The deal will raise SPH/ Perennial's stakes to 30.68%/ 50.64%.


- Secured a contract for the construction of one service vessel for integrated fish-farming group
*Vard
Midt-Norsk Havbruk in Norway.
- The vessel is slated to deliver by 2Q18.
- Trading at 0.8x P/B.


*Keppel T&T
- 70:30 JV with Keppel Land partnered Singapore Internet Exchange (SGIX) to enhance network connectivity in Singapore.
- The partnership increases SGIX Internet peering points in Singapore to four, boosting its service coverage across the country.
- Customers of Keppel Data Centres that connect to SGIX stand to enjoy reduced latency and lower operating costs from the streamlining of Internet connections. 


*Cogent
- Entered into a Deed of Gift with its chairman to transfer his rights, title and interest in certain patents relating to the frame structure for a multi-level container handling and storage facility.


-
*Yoma
Proposed placement of 155m new shares (8.9% share capital) at $0.53 each to placement agent CLSA and RHB Securities.
- Net proceeds of $80.9m earmarked to fund growth and expansion for its real estate division (50%), with the remainder for the automotive and heavy equipment divisions, consumer and others.


- The properties have a combined strata floor area of 128,000
- Golden Bay owns 59 strata lots, of which 21 are shops and 38 are offices, located at Orchard Tower and 1 Claymore Drive in Singapore.
- Entered into a conditional agreement to buy property investment firm Golden Bay Realty for $162m.
*Hiap Hoe
sf and NLA of 89,000 sf.
- The acquisition will expand the group's property investment portfolio and strengthen its recurrent income stream.
- Trades at 8.2x trailing P/E.


- The 999-year property with
- To purchase a 3-storey conservation commercial shophouse for $26.5m.
*Top Global
gfa of 10,027 sf will be enhanced and leased to hostel operator 5Footway Founders.


//amazon