28 February 2017

Thank you for attending SAFRA Financial Literacy Talks - Graphic Designer needed

The first ever SYN Financial Literacy Talk held over last Saturday (25Feb) was a small milestone we have achieved together.

We have reviewed the feedback gathered from the participants and it clearly showed them benefiting from such educational seminars. Many of them have indicated further interest to attend future sessions to learn more about financial matters and tools for investing.

At the same time, we will need to devise a plan to segregate the audience into at least 2 different groupings of a different focus. This will further enhance the learning experience, answering more heartfelt questions. Future talks will remain free of charge and it will continue to serve as our way of contributing back to the society. 

Personally, I do not have any interest be a full-time speaker to receive remunerations now, or in the future to come. I enjoy doing what I love and share what I know. As promised, there was no fee collected or received by us after the session.

We managed to overcome many challenges in the process of getting the event running. Disappointingly, during the set up of the event, some of the cost for marketing collaterals and EDMs (Electronic Direct Mailer) was passed on to us.

We would like to continue to share our expertise in the respective fields, however, bearing in mind that we are all volunteering for this event. Similar to any company or projects, it is only logical and sensible with aims to reduce costs incurred. In order to do so, we are seeking ideas and volunteers who can help us out with designing the EDMs for the next series. 

Hope to get some favourable responses! It will certainly solve one part of our challenge for the next seminar too. Thank you again for your kind support and meet up soon!




EDM:

24 February 2017

Q&M Dental

morning,


been watching QnM dental since eons. Target price 0.90-1.00 by some of the houses report. But prices havent move much ever since. Possible that there are events happening underway or upcoming in the weeks/months to come. After all, companies have a planned schedule of announcements. 

Link below shared with me by a friend.

Meanwhile, a few clients asking me on Nico steel. Should you have info and insights, do share with me too.



Q&M Dental Group (Singapore) Limited is conducting a strategic review of its business, and has appointed Religare Capital Markets Corporate Finance to help with the task.
In an exchange filing late on Thursday evening, the group said that the independent review of options available for its business is in line with its commitment to enhance shareholder value.
"As part of the strategic review, the company, through Religare Capital Markets, may undertake preliminary discussions with various parties to evaluate the viability of options available for its business," it said.
Q&M added that there is no assurance any transaction will materialise from the strategic review, and the company will make an announcement if there were any material developments.



http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/qm-dental-conducts-strategic-review-to-enhance-shareholder-value?xtor=CS3-24



*China Aviation Oil: 4Q16 net profit surged 57% to US$17.9m, bringing full year net profit to US$88.9m (+45.1%), beating street estimates. For the quarter, revenue grew 65.2% to US$3.3b from the increase in volume traded, while gross profit rose at a slower clip to US$10.6m (+32.3%). Further, bottom line was lifted by lower other operating expenses of $0.8m (-57%), as well as a spike in associate contribution (+36.7%) led by Shanghai Pudong International Airport Aviation Fuel Supply Company. Hiked first and final DPS to 4.5¢ (FY15: 3¢).

*Hyflux: FY16 net profit crashed 91% to $4.8m, despite revenue more than doubling to $987m (+121.7%), from contributions by TuasOne waste-to-energy project, Qurayyat Independent Water Project and Oman Tuaspring power plant. However, profits generated by the higher EPC projects were substantially wiped out by losses from the weak Singapore power market and electricity prices. Slashed final DPS to 0.25¢, bringing full year DPS to 0.45¢ (FY15: 1.7¢). NAV/share at $0.451.

*Far East Orchard: FY16 net profit surged to $65m (+123%), boosted by the development completion for commercial property project, SBF Center, as well as increased JV contribution. However, revenue fell 31.7% to $184.9m, on lower takings in both property development and hospitality. Gross margin widened 6ppts to 32.1% on a shift in mix, while the bottom line was also supported by the absence of a $4.9m goodwill impairment and positive FX swing of $11.1m. Maintained first and final DPS of 6¢. NAV/share at $2.91.

*ISEC: 4Q16 net profit spiked from a low base to $1.5m (4Q15: $0.1m), bringing FY16 earnings to $6.5m (+136%), slightly below forecast. For the year, revenue jumped 15% to $30.8m, from contribution of recently-acquired Southern Specialist Eye Centre and increased patient visits in Malaysia, but mitigated by the closure of loss-making International Specialist Eye Centre in Singapore. Accordingly, gross margin expanded 3.3ppts to 47.9%. Final DPS of 0.11¢ declared, bringing FY16 payout to 0.99¢ (FY15: 0.44¢). MKE last had a Buy with TP of $0.42.

*Memtech: 4Q16 net profit climbed 5.9% to US$4m, as revenue rose 25.5% to US$47.9m, led by improvements from consumer electronics and automotive segments, which outweighed weakness from telecommunication. Pretax margin narrowed 2ppt to 8.6% on higher staff and goods transportation costs, as well as an absence of a write-back of doubtful trade receivables. Healthy net cash of US$24m accounts for 39% of market cap. However, group cut its first and final DPS to 2.5¢ (FY15: 3.3¢).

*Frencken: 4Q16 net profit surged 5x to $4.4m, lifted mainly from the absence of an impairment loss. Revenue climbed 7.8% to $111.2m on stronger sales in mechatronics (+15%), but partially weighed by lower contribution from IMS (-2.3%). However, a 2.5ppt dip in gross margin to 14.6% negated the sales uplift. Higher first and final DPS of 1.2¢/share declared (FY15: 0.75¢). NAV/share at 0.5229.

*Q&M: Undertaking an independent strategic review and has appointed Religare Capital Markets as financial adviser. MKE last had a Buy with TP of $1.00.

*Global Premium Hotels: Received conditional privatisation offer at a final price of $0.365/share, representing 14% premium to last traded price, from Chairman Dr. Koh Wee Meng, who has secured undertakings for 71% of shares. The offer values the group at 0.53x P/B.

*Tritech: Awarded a Rmb10.5m contract to design, install and construct a waste water treatment plant in Hebei, China, with a capacity of 2,500 cubic meters per day.

20 February 2017

Amara- Interesting reward risk proposition!!!

For a more detailed report on this, please let me know.




Think it presents good risk reward, buy now, pray for breakout, cut loss at S$0.385
TP : S$0.52-0.58

Play on earnings growth- with operational and interest rate savings plus contribution and ramp up of china and thailand hotels that come on board in 2017 and 2015 respectively. (although not sure y interest expense is falling - maybe lower interest rate nego)

With 4 hotels now, and possibly 1 more with JV at Myanamar- spinoff in future as REIT?

Trading in a tight range of S$0.395-0.425 for 11 months.   Noted that since Jun 16- Oct 16, abit of heightened volume. Last week, heightened volume again. Currently on the verge of breakout at S$0.425, 
__________________________________________________________________________
Amara (Price: 0.425, mkt cap: S$244m)- 4 hotels (2 in Sg, 1 in Shanghai, 1 in Bangkok) + 1 retail mall in sg

Properties include:
1)      Amara hotel at Tanjong Pagar-388 guest room
2)      343 guest room at Shanghai + adjoining office and retail mall- to be opened soon,
3)      Amara Sentosa 140 guest room,
4)      Amara BangKok-250 guestroom- opened in mid 2015
5)      Freehold 2-storey terrace house at Hoot Kiam Road
NAV: S$0.6457, P/B: 0.66x; RNAV: S$1.356, P/RNAV: 0.31x – Stock trading near an all time low in terms of P/B.
_____________________________________________________________

Investment highlights:
1)      NAV: S$0.6457, P/B: 0.66x; RNAV: S$1.356, P/RNAV: 0.31x – Stock trading near an all time low in terms of P/B.
2)      More diversified earnings + earnings boost with 2 new hotels – opening of Amara Bangkok in Apr 15 (gradual rampup?), opening of Amara Shanghai (expected in early 2017)
3)      2.8% dividend yield (DPS: S$0.012)
4)      Operational efficiency to start showing for next 3 quarters? Of note 3Q16, showed other expenses dropping 25% yoy (S$1.7m savings)- this was not evident in 2Q16. Interest expense also continue to fall for 2 consecutive quarters. With a 4% growth in sales and cost savings from other expenses, net profit for 3Q16 rose 44% yoy. – annualized 3QFY16- net profit = S$15.8m (PE about 15.4x, have not included China yet which is not yet operational)
5)      Vote of confidence from management
·         CEO bought 100,000 shares at S$0.42 on Aug 16- family owns 72.3% of co. (remuneration not overly high though, with just 1 director with remuneration of S$750k-1m, the rest are below)
·         Management has also constantly state that co. is undervalued (back in 2015, engaged in active buybacks, and price then was S$0.545, now is S$0.425)
Risks:
1)      Increased competition for crown jewel (Tanjong Pagar Hotel) with opening of Clermont hotel
2)      High net D/E of 75% (although we do note, it is backed by properties)

Technicals
·         Trading in a tight range of S$0.395-0.425 for 11 months.
·         Noted that since Jun 16- Oct 16, abit of heightened volume. Last week, heightened volume again. Currently on the verge of breakout at S$0.425,


P/B
TP
upside
0.60
0.39
-8.8%
0.65
0.42
-1.3%
0.70
0.45
6.3%
0.75
0.48
13.9%
0.80
0.52
21.5%
3 year average
0.85
0.55
29.1%
0.90
0.58
36.7%
5 year average
0.95
0.61
44.3%
1.00
0.65
51.9%






16 February 2017

Noble Overbought!

Morning all,


Noble should be going thru profit taking now as it is very overbought. But of course, it still depends on any fundamental updates from the company itself.


DBS results down 7%. And I think it's a good chance to buy a small entry at any price below 18.20 for investing.

I noticed Qnm dental this morning, up 3.5% in 10 mins. Trying to find out more. Do share with me any insights that you may have.

Cheers!


In observance of Presidents' Day, U.S. Markets will be closed on Monday,
February 20th, 2017.

Normal trading will resume on Tuesday, February 21st, 2017.



Noble Group


15 February 2017

Candlestick Patterns To Buy/Sell Stocks

for my friends who are wanting to learn more on candlestick. It gives more information than line graphs that only document the final prices

Do note that this is an indication of possible directions, it is not 100%.




Candlestick charts are a type of financial chart for tracking the movement of securities. They have their origins in the centuries-old Japanese rice trade and have made their way into modern day price charting. Some investors find them more visually appealing than the standard bar charts and the price actions easier to interpret.
Candlesticks are so named because the rectangular shape and lines on either end resemble a candle with wicks. Each candlestick usually represents one day’s worth of price data about a stock. Over time, the candlesticks group into recognizable patterns that investors can use to make buying and selling decisions. In this article we will focus on identifying bullish candlestick patterns that signal a buying opportunity. (Read more in Candlestick Charting: What Is It?)

How to Read a Single Candlestick
Each candlestick represents one day’s worth of price data about a stock through four pieces of information: the opening price, the closing price, the high price, and the low price. The color of the central rectangle (called the real body) tells investors whether the opening price or the closing price was higher. A black or filled candlestick means the closing price for the period was less than the opening price; hence, it is bearish and indicates selling pressure. Meanwhile, a white or hollow candlestick means that the closing price was greater than the opening price. This is bullish and shows buying pressure. The lines at both ends of a candlestick are called shadows, and they show the entire range of price action for the day, from low to high. The upper shadow shows the stock’s highest price for the day and the lower shadow shows the lowest price for the day.
Bearish and Bullish Candlesticks


Bullish Candlestick Patterns
Over time, groups of daily candlesticks fall into recognizable patterns with descriptive names like three white soldiersdark cloud cover, hammer, morning star, and abandoned baby, to name just a few. Patterns form over a period of one to four weeks and are a source of valuable insight into a stock’s future price action. Before we delve into individual bullish candlestick patterns, note the following two principles:

1.        Bullish reversal patterns should form within a downtrend. Otherwise, it’s not a bullish pattern, but a continuation pattern.

2.        Most bullish reversal patterns require bullish confirmation. In other words, they must be followed by an upside price move which can come as a long hollow candlestick or a gap up, and be accompanied by high trading volume. This confirmation should be observed within three days of the pattern.

The bullish reversal patterns can further be confirmed through other means of traditional technical analysis—like trend lines, momentum oscillators, or volume indicators—to reaffirm buying pressure. (For insight into ancillary technical indicators see Basics of Technical Analysis) There are great many candlestick patterns that indicate an opportunity to buy. We will focus on five bullish candlestick patterns that give the strongest reversal signal.


1. The Hammer or The Inverted Hammer
The Hammer is a bullish reversal pattern, which signals that a stock is nearing bottom in a downtrend. The body of the candle is short with a longer lower shadow which is a sign of sellers driving prices lower during the trading session, only to be followed by strong buying pressure to end the session on a higher close. Before we jump in on the bullish reversal action, however, we must confirm the upward trend by watching it closely for the next few days. The reversal must also be validated through the rise in the trading volume.
The Inverted Hammer also forms in a downtrend and represents a likely trend reversal or support. It’s identical to the Hammer except for the longer upper shadow, which indicates buying pressure after the opening price, followed by considerable selling pressure, which however wasn’t enough to bring the price down below its opening value. Again, bullish confirmation is required and it can come in the form of a long hollow candlestick or a gap up, accompanied by a heavy trading volume.
HammerInverted Hammer

2. The Bullish Engulfing
The Bullish Engulfing pattern is a two-candle reversal pattern. The second candle completely ‘engulfs’ the real body of the first one, without regard to the length of the tail shadows. The Bullish Engulfing pattern appears in a downtrend and is a combination of one dark candle followed by a larger hollow candle. On the second day of the pattern, price opens lower than the previous low, yet buying pressure pushes the price up to a higher level than the previous high, culminating in an obvious win for the buyers. It is advisable to enter a long position when the price moves higher than the high of the second engulfing candle—in other words when the downtrend reversal is confirmed.


Bullish Engulfing


3. The Piercing Line
Similar to the engulfing pattern, the Piercing Line is a two-candle bullish reversal pattern, also occurring in downtrends. The first long black candle is followed by a white candle that opens lower than the previous close. Soon thereafter, the buying pressure pushes the price up halfway or more (preferably two-thirds of the way) into the real body of the black candle.
Piercing LIne


4. The Morning Star
As the name indicates, the Morning Star is a sign of hope and a new beginning in a gloomy downtrend. The pattern consists of three candles: one short-bodied candle (called a doji or a spinning top) between a preceding long black candle and a succeeding long white one. The color of the real body of the short candle can be either white or black, and there is no overlap between its body and that of the black candle before. It shows that the selling pressure that was there the day before is now subsiding. The third white candle overlaps with the body of the black candle and shows a renewed buyer pressure and a start of a bullish reversal, especially if confirmed by the higher volume.


Morning Star

5. The Three White Soldiers
This pattern is usually observed after a period of downtrend or in price consolidation. It consists of three long white candles that close progressively higher on each subsequent trading day. Each candle opens higher than then previous open and closes near the high of the day, showing a steady advance of buying pressure. Investors should exercise caution when white candles appear to be too long as that may attract short sellers and push the price of the stock further down. (See more in How do I build a profitable strategy when spotting a Three White Soldiers Pattern?)


Three White Soldiers
The chart below for Enbridge, Inc. (ENB) shows three of the bullish reversal patterns discussed above: the Inverted Hammer, the Piercing Line, and the Hammer.
ENB chart
The chart for Pacific DataVision, Inc. (PDVW) shows the Three White Soldiers pattern. Note how the reversal in downtrend is confirmed by the sharp increase in the trading volume.
PDVW chart


The Bottom Line
Investors should use candlestick charts like any other technical analysis tool (i.e., to study the psychology of market participants in the context of stock trading). They provide an extra layer of analysis on top of the fundamental analysis that forms the basis for trading decisions. We looked at five of the more popular candlestick chart patterns that signal buying opportunities. They can help identify a change in trader sentiment where buyer pressure overcomes seller pressure. Such a downtrend reversal can be accompanied by a potential for long gains. That said, the patterns themselves do not guarantee that the trend will reverse. Investors should always confirm reversal by the subsequent price action before initiating a trade.


Read more: 
Using Bullish Candlestick Patterns To Buy Stocks | Investopedia http://www.investopedia.com/articles/active-trading/062315/using-bullish-candlestick-patterns-buy-stocks.asp#ixzz4UgFSVofw
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14 February 2017

Congrats to my clients on Noble!


As mentioned earlier, written in the right-hand column of this blog. on the charts, it is clear there are some accumulations over the last 3 months.

Congrats to my clients on Noble! Will elaborate more when I have the time. But I don't think it's a good entry price now. stay safe, after all there are other counters too. :)








http://www.reuters.com/article/us-noble-m-a-sinochem-idUSKBN15S0VP


By Anshuman Daga and Sumeet Chatterjee | SINGAPORE/HONG KONG
China's state-owned Sinochem is in early talks with Noble Group (NOBG.SI) to buy an equity stake in the embattled trader, three sources familiar with the matter said, in a move that would help it gain access to the commodity trader's global supply chain.

Taking a stake in an internationally active trading house like Noble would help Sinochem, a big oil, gas and petrochemical company, in its ambitions to become a more globally active energy trader, and also develop China's gas industry.

The discussions are taking place as Singapore-listed Noble looks to rejig its business units, cut debt and boost liquidity to fight a long-term downtrend in commodity prices.

In November, Hong Kong-headquartered Noble said it had met its capital raising target of $2 billion as it sold assets, completed a rights issue and restructured its operations.

The sources said the talks have not been completed and there is no assurance that a deal will be finalised.

They said senior Noble executives visited China in recent months to hold talks with Sinochem's management, and both sides also met at Noble's U.S. regional hub in Stamford, Connecticut.

The sources declined to be identified as they were not authorized to speak to the media.

Sinochem did not immediately return a request for comment.

Responding to the Reuters story, Noble told the Singapore exchange on Tuesday that it was holding talks but did not give details.

"The board wishes to advise that Noble Group is currently engaged in discussions regarding a possible strategic investment in Noble Group," it said.

"However, no binding arrangements have as yet been entered into with respect to this possible transaction and, accordingly, there can be no assurance that this transaction will be concluded."

Noble already has the backing of Chinese sovereign wealth fund China Investment Corp. (CIC), which participated in the company's rights issue last year. The capital raising followed a slump in investor confidence as Noble's accounting practices were questioned by Iceberg Research.

CIC has a 9.6 percent stake in Noble, while Noble Chairman Richard Elman holds a stake of about 18 percent.

The size of the planned stake or the amount to be invested by Sinochem has not yet been finalised, and any deal could face scrutiny in China as authorities there try to control capital outflows, sources said.

ALSO IN DEALS

Allergan to buy fat-fighter Zeltiq Aesthetics for $2.48 billion
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The appeal of Noble for Sinochem is likely to be access to its global supply chain.

A Sinochem source said the company was still conducting due diligence on Noble, which typically takes six months to a year. He said the company was looking at Noble's North America energy trading, which could complement Sinochem's existing portfolio.

Noble specializes in shipping and storage logistics, rather than owning large production assets or refineries, and is also a major player in gasoline blending in the United States.

Noble is also targeting Asia's emerging liquefied natural gas (LNG) market as a core growth area, while Sinochem is likely to play a key role in China's plans to expand its natural gas sector to reduce the share of polluting coal in its energy mix.

Access to Noble's LNG trading network could help with the Chinese plans.

(Reporting by Anshuman Daga in SINGAPORE and Sumeet Chatterjee in HONG KONG; Additional reporting by Henning Gloystein and Florence Tan in SINGAPORE and Hallie Gu in BEIJING; Editing by Will Waterman and Stephen Coates)

06 February 2017

SAFRA Financial Literacy Talk







Time   : Sat, Feb 25, 10:00 AM - 1:00 PM


 
A short and simple financial literacy program to share market insights and information. There will be 2 parts to the program; insurance and investment. I will be covering the investment and trading part.

Doing up this simple event to collate all the people who are keen. Limited to 50 seats. Light refreshments will be provided. More details will be published at a later time.

This is done on my personal time and effort. Not affiliated to any company or organisation.



Sign up here: 

https://plus.google.com/events/c15dgvd1oq10ihbeqsj0htpj0ss?ghf=3049771&authkey=CLTd_7nzjODcbg


**please note that for non-SAFRA members, it will be a small fee of $5. This will be collected by SAFRA as they are the ones organising the event. 

Let me know if you are bringing your friends. See u there.
//amazon