29 November 2016

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Singapore’s hypocrisy exposed by seized military vehicles

taken from: http://en.people.cn/n3/2016/1128/c90000-9147777.html




By Ai Jun (Global Times)    10:08, November 28, 2016


A Singapore-bound cargo ship from Taiwan with armoured military vehicles on board was inspected and detained by Hong Kong customs on Thursday last week. The Chinese foreign ministry responded Friday that the "Chinese government is firmly opposed to any forms of official interaction between Taiwan and countries that have diplomatic relations with us, military exchanges and cooperation included." The case is still being verified, but those military vehicles have raised new questions about Singapore's policy toward China.

Given that Singapore is a small country with limited space for military exercises, the nation has to train its troops overseas to maintain a strong defence force. According to the Taipei Times, former Taiwan leader Chiang Kai-shek and then-Singaporean prime minister Lee Kwan Yew ratified a secret agreement called Project Starlight in 1975, under which Singapore can send troops to Taiwan annually for training.

It is to some extent understandable that Singapore did this before it established diplomatic relations with China. But after 1990, the year that formal diplomatic ties were established, it is no longer reasonable for Singapore to continue Project Starlight or any kind of military exchanges with Taiwan.

In 2012, Singapore claimed it would suspend bilateral military cooperation with the island. However, the recently detained vessel with its cargo of armoured vehicles reveals Singapore's hypocrisy.

For quite some time, Singapore has been pretending to seek a balance between China and the US, yet has been taking Washington's side in reality. Singapore was never a military ally of the US, but has given the green light to US military forces' long-term presence at its Changi Naval Base as well as allowing US Navy Boeing P-8A Poseidon aircraft to operate out of its airbases. This has turned Singapore into a platform for Washington to contain and deter Beijing. Singapore claimed it was not picking sides in the South China Sea disputes, but its remarks about the issue are far from neutral; instead, it has actually complicated and expanded the scale of the case.

It should be expected that a small country like Singapore has its own tactics of survival in games of major powers. The country, which used to know its boundaries, is losing its balance now. Its measures to contain China are becoming obvious. The military equipment seized by Hong Kong authorities this time further adds to the suspicion that Singapore might be working against the "one China" principle.

It should be understood that if public opinion about Singapore changes in China, it will turn into a huge blow to bilateral ties, result in a possible adjustment to Beijing's foreign policies and profoundly impact Singapore's economy.

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28 November 2016

BREAKING NEWS: China lodges protest with Singapore over Terrex vehicles seized in Hong Kong

Chinese has always been on the extremes; if you are chinese, you are to follow the one china policy. this is just a political proxy to something which i still cant figure what is yet.

More to come, more than meets the eye.
Taken from :http://www.todayonline.com/world/asia/china-lodges-protest-singapore-over-troop-carriers
BEIJING — China said on Monday (Nov 28) it had lodged a protest with Singapore after Singaporean armoured troop carriers were seized by Hong Kong customs en route back from Taiwan, as a state-owned newspaper warned against Singapore's "hypocrisy".
The nine troop carriers were impounded in Hong Kong last week, sparking a rebuke to Singapore from China's foreign ministry about maintaining military ties with self-ruled Taiwan, which China considers a breakaway province.
"China has already made representations over this to the Singapore side," Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said at a regular press briefing on Monday.
China had also "demanded" that Singapore abide by Hong Kong's relevant laws and cooperate with the Hong Kong government to handle relevant follow-up work, he added.
Hong Kong, a former British colony, returned to Chinese rule in 1997.
China always opposes countries which have relations with China also having "any form of official exchanges with the Taiwan region, including military exchanges and cooperation", Mr Geng said.


China has claimed sovereignty over Taiwan since 1949, when  Mao Zedong's Communist forces won the Chinese civil war and Chiang Kai-shek's Nationalists fled to the island. Beijing has vowed to bring Taiwan under its rule, by force if necessary. China says Taiwan is part of "one China", ruled by Beijing.
The Global Times, China's nationalist state-owned tabloid, warned that Singapore's "hypocrisy" over its military relationship with Taiwan could harm its relations with China.
"It is no longer reasonable for Singapore to continue... any kind of military exchange with Taiwan," said an opinion article in the paper, written by a commentator identified only as Ai Jun, which is a homonym for "love the army".
Singapore and Taiwan have a longstanding military relationship that began in the 1970s and involves Taiwan being used as grounds for Singaporean infantry training.
Beijing has grudgingly tolerated this agreement since the China and Singapore re-established diplomatic relations in the 1990s.
The incident with the armoured troop carriers "adds to the suspicion" that Singapore is working against the "one China" principle, said the paper. REUTERS
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ST Engineering- Quick takeaways from analysts briefing


  • ST Engineering(STE) appears to be pleased by the 3Q results. Excluding the impairment charge of S61m( which STE announced in October), 3Q's net profit would have risen by 3%.
  • STE indicted that final payout will reflect the true business conditions, ie the S$61m charge might not be taken into consideration in assessing the final dividend. STE specifically indicated that they will attempt to " defend" the 15 S cents payout, suggesting a high likelihood of final 10 S cents dividend. Total Dividend yield stands at 4.8% at $3.10.
  • Concerns relating to the marine division exposure to the O&M sector appear to have been alleviated somewhat as cost rationalisations and a venture into oceanographic research vessels, helped boost GP margins. The division was also aided by defense related ship-repair work.
  • The Land Systems will be exiting out of the China's commercial business but its speciality vehicle business is faring well in the US and could benefit from greater infrastructure spending.
  • STE also appeared to be confident of new capabilites, ranging from investments in cyber security,  data analytics to satellite imagery.

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24 November 2016

Global Logistic Properties (GLP SP) : Metamorphosis Into A Global Fund Manager


INITIATE COVERAGE

Global Logistic Properties (GLP SP)

Buy | Price/Tgt: S$2.01/S$2.40 | Mkt Cap: S$9,350.6m

Metamorphosis Into A Global Fund Manager


GLP is a fund manager, developer and owner-operator of modern logistics facilities. As of 30 Sep 16, GLP owned and operated a global portfolio of 52m sqm (560m sf) that caters primarily to domestic consumption. GLP’s US$39b fund management platform is a key area of growth going forward.
·        Initiate with BUY and a target price of S$2.40, pegged to a 22% discount (in line with historical discount to our RNAV of S$3.06). We adopt a conservative RNAV based-valuation methodology instead of a riskier EV/AUM approach with a long gestation period of 5-10 years.
·        Transformation into an asset-light model could see valuation expand to S$4.25/share, based on an EV/AUM of 0.48x (in line with that of fund management peers). Global Logistic Properties (GLP) could further unlock value by setting up income funds/REITs to monetise its China and Japan assets. We estimate that the monetisation of GLP’s assets in China and Japan could be deployed to grow the AUM by another US$30.8b over the next 5-10 years (8.3% CAGR). Recall that GLP developed the AUM business from the ground up to nearly US$38b (US$27b invested) in five years.
·        Attractive 43% discount even after pricing in a takeover premium of 20%. A takeover bid would be unsurprising to a long-term investor given the abovementioned scalability of the fund management business. GLP has clarified that it was not in talks with the consortium (Hillhouse Capital, China Investment and Hopu Investment) mentioned in recent media articles. However, we would not dismiss either a privatisation bid or a scheme of arrangement (a la ARA Asset Management) given major shareholder GIC’s recent S$3.7b purchase of a European portfolio, a geography where GLP has been alluding to expanding into as part of its diversification strategy.
·        Continued demand for modern logistics space in China from e-commerce players. We expect e-commerce growth to continue underpinning demand for modern logistics facilities in China, where such tenants account for 25% of GLP’s leased area. iResearch estimates China’s online shopping market would grow at a CAGR of nearly 23% in 2016-18, outpacing the US’ e-commerce growth of 12% (emarketer.com estimate). Moreover, existing logistics facilities in China largely fail to meet modern requirements, with 70% built before 1990. Thus, oversupply concerns may be overstated in the face of pent-up demand. China is GLP’s largest market, accounting for 56% of book value.
·        Near-term China supply fears could be overblown. Investor concerns have centred on the oversupply of logistics space in China, particularly in secondary cities like Shenyang. We note that secondary cities account for only 11% of GLP’s total exposure to China. With market leader GLP limiting its development activities in these markets, its peers have started to follow suit, and management believes the situation will stabilise over the next 12 months.
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18 November 2016

StarHub 3Q16 - Sustainability Of Dividend Policy AT RISK



2/11/16

StarHub (STH SP)
3Q16: Sustainability Of Dividend Policy At Risk
  • Mobile  and  pay-TV  businesses  continued  to  be  under  pressure  while  residential broadband  and  fixed  enterprise  businesses  have  progressed  sideways.   Mobile revenue was down 3.6%  yoy  (post-paid:  -2.4%,  pre-paid:  -10.7%  yoy).   StarHub  lost  11,000  pay-TV subscribers,  the  fifth  consecutive  quarter  of  sequential  contraction. Net profit declined 27.5% yoy.
  • StarHub’s dividend policy of paying out 5 S cents per quarter and 20 S cents per year is at risk of downgrade as grants from NGNBN taper off and competition intensifies with the potential entry of a fourth mobile operator.
  • Maintain SELL. Lowered target price to S$2.40.
https://research.uobkayhian.com/content_download.jsp?id=36929&h=239960b9beb0a3e5097ab21c301bee18


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16 November 2016

Two possible privatisation candidates Mermaid Maritime and Pacc Offshore Services Holdings

as spoken previously on Mermaid Maritime.

However please note that these are only speculations. Until there is an offer to buy, the prices of these shares should remain low with little trading volume.

personally i would trade such counters, that is to say buy and sell accordingly depending on the trade flow which I will monitor in office.

For urgent matters, pls call my office line.




Taken from : http://www.straitstimes.com/business/shares-of-vard-perk-up-amid-buyout-bid



Shares of Vard Holdings jumped 6.52 per cent after the shipbuilder said late on Sunday its Italian parent Fincantieri is offering to buy out minority investors at 24 cents a share.

The counter rose 1.5 cents to close at 24.5 cents yesterday.

Outside of last week's sharp run-up ahead of the announcement, Vard shares have not traded at such a level since January. But some investors said they expect to see the offer revised upwards before they part with their shares.

Shareholder Chris Low said: "Vard has made significant progress in turning its order book around away from offshore support vessels towards fishing boats and luxury cruise ships. That its owner would come in to buy the depressed company out has been in the works for a while," he said. "Still, I expect them to revise the offer up further, at least closer to the 30-cent mark to make it attractive."

Fincantieri, with a 55.63 per cent stake in Vard, is offering 24 cents in cash for the rest of Vard, or $125.6 million for 523.5 million shares.

The offer price represents a premium of about 11.63 per cent, 24.35 per cent, and 29.73 per cent over Vard's volume-weighted average price per share for the one-month, three-month and six-month periods respectively up to and including Nov 11, but falls below the net asset value per share of 36 cents.

Both Vard and Fincantieri declined further comment.

                                               


OCBC analyst Low Pei Han recommended that shareholders accept the offer if they are "not prepared to ride the offshore cycle", since the stock had a consensus fair value estimate of 15.9 cents before the offer.
DBS analyst Suvro Sarkar also called the offer "attractive".

Fincantieri's offer is conditional upon a 90 per cent ownership level. It said it wants to delist Vard to achieve greater management flexibility amid "unfavourable oil and gas market conditions".

As valuations in the sector remain depressed, the privatisation trend is expected to persist.

Two possible candidates here are Mermaid Maritime and Pacc Offshore Services Holdings, Mr Sarkar said. "Mermaid is about 87.3 per cent held by the Thoresen group and its related management, leaving only $36.6 million in free-float market capitalisation. The Thoresen group has the necessary ammunition to take Mermaid private.

"Pacc Offshore is 81.89 per cent owned by the Kuok group, and is a more stable long-term bet versus peers with no immediate debt concerns and positive operating cash flows in the year to date."




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15 November 2016

CIC group said to mull bid for GLP - GLP denies

stock focus on GLP previously on 02/11/16










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14 November 2016

SG market 11/11/16






The market is likely to be swept up by expectations of a US reflationary theme under a Trump presidency, which could revive the battered commodity and resource sectors.

Regional bourses gapped up in Tokyo (+0.9%), Seoul (-0.9%) and Sydney (+0.4%).Technically, STI could test its immediate resistance at 2,840 (50-dma), with underlying support seen at 2,780.

Stocks to watch:
*Noble: Swung into 3Q16 net loss of US$28.1m (3Q15: US$24.7m profit, 2Q16: US$54.9m loss), as revenue tumbled 34.8% to US$11.4b due to lower sales tonnage (-20.1%). While operating margin of supply chains inched up 0.1ppt to 1.76%, bottom line was weighed by higher admin costs (+44%), and loss from discontinuing businesses (US$60m). Operating cash flow remains negative, but adjusted net debt has been pared down to US$1.9b (2Q16: US$2.4b, FY15: US$2.26b), with improved liquidity headroom of US$1.2b from US$0.8b in 2Q16. NAV/share at US$0.30.

*Wilmar: 3Q16 results missed although core net profit rose 9.8% to US$384.9m on improved profitability at downstream businesses tropical oil segment (+80.7%) and oilseeds and grains (+1.9%), but sugar (-20.6%) was watered down by wet weather. Revenue rose 4.1% to US$11.1b on stronger commodity prices, despite reduced sales volume for upstream products. EBITDA margin expanded 1.8ppt to 7.2% on the shift towards the more profitable downstream segment. NAV/share at US$2.264.

*SATS: 2QFY17 net profit of $62.1m (+4%) was in line as revenue grew 3.7% to $438.5m on stronger contribution from food solutions (+4%) and gateway solutions (+3.4%). Operating margin expanded to 14.5%(+0.5ppts) on reduced cost of raw materials (-5%), as well as lower company premise & utilities expenses (-1.8%). Interim DPS raised to $0.06 (2QFY16: $0.05). MKE maintains Sell with TP of $3.76 on stretched valuations.

*Lippo Malls Trust: 3Q16 DPU of 0.86¢ (+11.7%) came in line, as revenue ($47m, +6.6%) and NPI ($43.3m, +7.6%) were bolstered by higher rents and increased carpark income. Occupancy stood was steady at 94.8%, with WALE of 4.63 years, while aggregate leverage stood at 32.7% (-3ppt q/q). NAV/unit at $0.39.

*Croesus Retail Trust: 1QFY17 DPU of 1.79¢ (+9.8%) came in line, as revenue surged to ¥3.13b (+55.8%), mainly led by new contributions from Torius (acquired in Oct '15), Fuji Grand Natalie (Apr '16) and Mallage Saga and Feeeal Asahikawa (May '16). NPI rose at a slower pace to ¥1.60b (+29.5%) due to higher expense ratios at the new malls. Portfolio occupancy remained healthy at 97.8% (-0.3ppt q/q), with WALE at 6.8 years. Aggregate leverage eased to 44.6% (-0.7ppt q/q), with average debt cost and tenor stable at 1.93% and 2.2 years, respectively. NAV/share at ¥75.14.

*UMS: 3Q16 net profit fell 20% to $6.8m, on a 15% drop in revenue to $26.1m due to reduced semiconductor sales. While gross margin expanded 2ppt to 57% from lower input costs, bottom line was weighed by an inventory provision of $1m, and reduced FX gains. Kept interim DPS at 1¢. NAV/share at $0.4512.

*UOL: 3Q16 net profit of $87.1m (-14%) missed, on an adverse $14.2m swing in JV loss to $3.9m. Revenue grew to $393.4m (+11%) on broad-based growth in property development (+19%), property investments (+2%), hotel operations (+5%) and dividend income (+2%), although gross margin slipped to 33% (-6ppts) on lower profitability in property development. NAV/share at $9.91..

*Ho Bee Land: 3Q16 net profit leapt to $26.7m (+31.8%), as revenue surged to $46.9m (44.4%) from sales recognition of two residential development projects in Melbourne and Gold Coast, Australia. However, growth at the bottom line was pared by an absence of $6.9m gain from investment property disposal. NAV/share at $4.17.

*Ying Li: 3Q16 fell to almost breakeven (3Q15 profit: Rmb2.9m) on lower interest income, bringing 9M16 net profit to Rmb21.8m or 13% of FY16 street estimate. Revenue surged to Rmb251m (+124.4%) from increased handovers for lower margin residential project San Ya Wan. Consequently, gross margin shrank 31.2ppt to 24%. Net asset value at Rmb1.94.

*Vard: 3Q16 continue to linger in the red with net loss of NOK80m (3Q15: NOK486m loss), bringing 9M16 loss to NOK96m versus FY16 street forecast of NOK138m loss. For the quarter, revenue slumped 34% to NOK1,503m due to reduced activity at its shipyards and cessation of operations in Vard Niterói, while EBITDA turned around to NOK33m (3Q15: NOK467m loss) from absence of loss provisions. Order book jumped to NOK14.08b (2Q16: NOK11.93b). NAV/share at $0.36.

*Parkson Retail Asia: Dismal 1QFY17 as it swung to a net loss of $5.2m (1QFY16: $49.5m profit), due to the absence of disposal gain (1QFY16: $46m). While revenue inched up to $93.3m (+0.7%) on increased direct sale of goods, same store sales across key markets declined between 6.6 and 28.2%. NAV/share at $0.23.

*Aspial: 9M16 net profit more than doubled to $9.4m (+113%), helped by a favorable FX swing of $19.3m. Revenue increased to $450.8m (+33%) on improved real estate (+57.2%) and financial service (+29.6%) businesses. but gross margin tumbled to 25.7% (-7.9ppt), on higher material and subcontract costs outpaced top line growth. NAV/share at $0.1655.

*Straco: 3Q16 net profit slipped 3.6% to $22.7m on a softer revenue of $47.6m (-3.4%), weighed by a contraction in overall visitor numbers (-1.1% to 2.01m) and a weaker RMB against SGD. Weakness was seen at Underwater World Xiamen and Lixing Cable Car, which more than offset improved contribution from Shanghai Ocean Aquarium and the Singapore Flyer. NAV/share at $0.2717.

*Boustead Projects: 2QFY17 net profit climbed 33% to $7.2m, on the back of a 16% jump in revenue to $62.2m, from stronger contribution from its design-and-build business, which also lifted gross margin by 1ppt to 25%. NAV/share at $0.646.

*SBS Transit: 3Q16 net profit jumped 43.2% to $7.8m, on firmer revenue of $274.4m (+4.8%), as growth in rail (+26.3%) mitigated the slight drop in bus (-1%). Operating margin widened 0.7ppt to 3.6% on savings in fuel and electricity (-26.5%), while bottom line was lifted by a 26.2% reduction in finance costs. NAV/share at $1.31.

*HMI: 1QFY17 net profit surge close to 4.5x to RM6.2m, bolstered by a RM3.5m reduction in FX losses. Revenue rose 16% to RM109.5m, mainly on higher patient load and average bill sizes at two of its key hospitals in Malaysia. Bottom line was also underpinned by a 56% drop in finance costs. Separately, HMI will buy out the remaining 51% stake in Mahkota Medical Centre in Malacca, as well as the remaining 39% stake in Regency Specialist Hospital in Johor for an aggregate RM556.5m. The acquisitions will be funded via a mix of debt and equity raising. Pro forma FY16 EPS is expected to increase by 30.4% post-completion. NAV/share at RM0.1974.


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07 November 2016

US election 2016: What happens next after election day?

US election 2016: What happens next after election day?

THE US election takes place on Tuesday, November 8 with either Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton set to be elected as America’s 45th president. But what happens after election day?

Trump, Clinton, White HouseGETTY
Either Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton will move into the White House next year

When do polls close?

Polls will close between 12am and 6am GMT.
There will be projections released immediately after, based on opinion polls carried out throughout the day.
The first results will be announced in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire. The town has only around a dozen residents who all vote at midnight local time (4am GMT) with the result declared around a minute later.
As results are counted and announced throughout the night, we could have a clear winner by around 4am GMT
It is possible that a winner might not be announced until after election day. In 2000, the result was unclear for around two weeks after voting closed because of a near-dead heat in Florida.
George W Bush was eventually declared the winner of the state, beating Al Gore by a margin of 537 votes. Florida’s 29 electoral college votes were enough to swing the presidency in either candidates favour.

What happens after the winner is announced?
Once US TV networks have called the election, the loser calls the winner to concede, though Trump has hinted that he might break with this tradition should he lose.
The electoral college will meet on Monday December 19 to formally elect the new president and vice president.
The results will be counted and officially announced by incumbent Vice President Joe Biden on Friday January 16, 2017.

US Elections 2016 in pictures

Wed, November 2, 2016

The top photos following the campaign journey of Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in the US Elections 2016

US Elections 2016 in pictures
GETTY
1 of 50
US Elections 2016 in pictures

What happens next after election day? How does the transition of power work?

Both candidates are likely to have already started “measuring the drapes” for the White House with preliminary transition teams.
Since August, both Trump and Clinton have been given access to 16,000 square feet of federal office – enough for 114 staff.
There, workers will have begun vetting potential names for the approximately 4,000 government positions that the new president will need to fill.
Once either Clinton or Trump has been declared winner the new president-elect will be given access to the Presidential Transition Headquarters in Washington, DC and will  be given a multi-million dollar budget. 
In 2008, Barack Obama was said to have employed a 450-person team at a cost of $12 million. Of that, $5.2 million as reportedly paid for by the US Government, with the remaining $6.8 million coming from private sources.
Barack ObamaGETTY
President Obama will meet with his replacement and tour them around the White House
The victor will also attend a Secret Service intelligence briefing. The agency has already revealed its codenames for the two candidates – Evergreen for Clinton, the same name she has used since she was First Lady, and Mogul for Trump.
Shortly after, Obama will invite the new president-elect to tour the White House and discuss the transfer of power, in the same manner as he did with his predecessor Bush in 2008.
The meeting was hailed as a success after Obama convinced Bush to release $350 million of bank bailout funds.
Obama would later praise Bush "for his service to our nation, as well as the generosity and co-operation he has shown throughout this transition”.
TrumpGETTY
Trump has indicated that he might reject the result if he loses

Will the presidential transition go smoothly?

Should Clinton win the election, the transition is likely to be an amicable one. 
Obama and his wife Michelle have been prominent campaigners for the Democratic candidate, who served as Secretary of State during the first Obama administration.
If Trump succeeds, there is the possibility that the switchover could be slightly more tense. The Republican has lashed out at Obama several times throughout his campaign, and infamously denied that the President was not born in the US.
Obama has retaliated by labelling Trump “not fit to be President”.
Throughout history, there have been incidents of pranks and vandalism during presidential transitions.
After the transition from Bill Clinton to George W Bush, it was reported that the White House had been “trashed”, leaving $14,000 worth of “damage, theft, vandalism and pranks”. 
Almost $5,000 was spent replacing damaged or missing W keys on keyboards, offensive graffiti was found and intentional damage left to office equipment.
Similar pranks have been noted in previous transitions, such as the one between Clinton and Bush’s father, George H W Bush.
Hillary ClintonGETTY
Clinton has lived in the White House previously as First Lady

When will the new president announce their cabinet?

After their meeting with Obama, the new president-elect will likely begin announcing cabinet appointments in early December.
Obama revealed his first picks around three weeks after election day.
Ahead of inauguration, the Centre for Presidential Transition recommends that the new cabinet are taken on a retreat to “mould them into a cohesive team”.
The rest of December and January will be spent preparing shaping agendas and continuing with appointments.
WHite HouseGETTY
The new President will move into the White House after inauguration

When will the new president move into the White House?

Traditionally, the president-elect and their family will stay in a hotel from January 15, before moving into the White House on inauguration day on January 20.
After they have been sworn in, the new president will gain access to the official presidential Twitter account @POTUS and the White House website will be redesigned and relaunched at midnight.


Taken from : http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/729117/us-election-2016-what-happens-next-after-day-results-transition-power
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04 November 2016

Worried about today’s market? Take a look at this chart!

The S&P 500 on Thursday fell for an eighth straight session, notching its longest retreat since the financial crisis in 2008. The epic losing streak has prompted a steady stream of predictions from doomsayers about an impending market collapse.
But it’s important to remember that in the grand scheme of things, this selloff is a mere blip.
Kieron Nutbrown, former head of global macro fixed income at First State Investments in London, has just the reminder to help investors take a step back and look at things from a long-term perspective.
–– ADVERTISEMENT ––

The chart, which first appeared on his blog, follows the path of global stocks over the past 500 years and demonstrates how prices have fared through wars, revolutions and depressions.













The chart “is intended only as an illustration of financial history,” Nutbrown told MarketWatch. “It is a visualisation of the ebb and flow of market sentiment from a long-term perspective.”
The independent analyst refused to speculate about where the market is headed, but noted that over time, stocks have “done a good job of proving the old dictum that markets climb a wall of worry.”
And if nothing else, attempting to pinpoint when the market has topped to predict the next correction is not a very “fruitful activity” for market watchers, he said.
Nutbrown created ‘A History of Share Prices’ using composite indexes for Genoa, the Netherlands, and the U.K. for years 1509 to 1788 and then the S&P 500SPX, -0.44%  or its precursors from 1789 onward.
However, he cautions that his index doesn’t reflect dividends or total returns, nor have prices been adjusted for inflation. It’s also important to keep in mind that long-duration indexes have a “survivor bias,” as successful companies typically replace failed enterprises.
Aside from being a quick study on major global events from the past few centuries, the chart helps readers put today’s market into perspective.
“Much financial commentary is concerned with the very short term, and I believe it is useful and edifying to place market movements in a longer term context,” said Nutbrown.
In the days ahead with volatility likely to pick up as U.S. voters go to the polls to elect the next president, it may make sense to view the market through a wider lens.


Taken from : http://www.marketwatch.com/story/worried-about-todays-market-take-a-look-at-this-chart-2016-11-03
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