US: Oct FOMC Minutes Inserted Dec Possibility But Little Else
Purposeful inclusion Of December Possibility And Conveying Of Shallow Trajectory In Oct FOMC, But Lack Of Strong FOMC Consensus In Favor For Dec Hike Did Not Add/Remove Market Conviction For December Liftoff
Our Fed Outlook – Latest FOMC Minutes Do Not Change Our December Fed Liftoff Projection
The October FOMC minutes put the December FOMC meeting as a very live date for policy action as we have already noted from the October FOMC statement on 28 Oct 2015 and more recently, comments from senior Fed officials including FOMC Chair Janet Yellen (4 Nov), New York Fed President William Dudley (permanent FOMC voter) and Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart (voter in 2015 FOMC). However, other that the very live possibility of seeing policy action in the December FOMC, the latest minutes does not really alter our Fed outlook.
Things could turn quiet for the US next week (23-27 Nov) as we will have the US Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday (26 Nov). The next 2 key events to watch in our view that closely relates to the Fed's December FOMC are happening in the subsequent week. The first to watch is on 3 December when FOMC Chair Janet Yellen will first deliver a speech to the Economic Club of Washington and then testify before the congressional joint Economic Committee in an annual appearance to discuss economic outlook on the same day, and the second is the US November labor market report due on 4 December.
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